The LSU Tigers and Arkansas Razorbacks may no longer face off on Black Friday, but their mid-October clash is still packed with meaning. The Razorbacks enter the game with momentum after a surprise victory over the Tennessee Volunteers, while LSU is coming off a tight win against the Ole Miss Rebels.
With playoff hopes on the line, the Tigers are determined to stay on course, while the Razorbacks are looking to prove they belong among the top 25. Here’s our analysis of how this LSU vs. Arkansas matchup could play out.
LSU vs. Arkansas Betting Preview
All LSU vs. Arkansas odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Oct. 19, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
LSU -9 - Spread
LSU -2.5 - Moneyline
LSU -135, Arkansas +114 - Over/Under
57 points - Game Time
Oct. 19, 7 p.m. ET - Location
Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium, Fayetteville, Ark. - Predicted Weather at Kick
70 degrees, sunny, 4 mph winds - How To Watch
ESPN
The CFN Football Playoff Meter and Vegas spread differ by a decent amount, but both favor the Tigers. This line opened at LSU -2.5 and had ticked up since Sunday before settling and returning to its original number on Friday. The total has moved down significantly.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
The total is set at 57 points, indicative of the offensive firepower in this one. With a spread of three points, the implied final score is close to 30-27 in favor of the Tigers.
LSU’s Winning Probability
Per the FPM, the next three games are key for the Tigers’ postseason hopes. LSU has a 75.1% chance to win the game, per the metric, translating to an implied spread of about nine points.
This is the third-easiest remaining game, with two toss-ups coming in the next few weeks.
- at Arkansas: 75.1%
- at Texas A&M: 50.0%
- vs. Alabama: 50.0%
- at Florida: 80.6%
- vs. Vanderbilt: 82.6%
- vs. Oklahoma: 83.3%
Arkansas’ Winning Probability
FPM thinks the back half of the Arkansas schedule is brutal. The Razorbacks have a 24.9% chance to win the game, per FPM, their second-hardest remaining game on the schedule. They’re underdogs in four of the six remaining games.
- vs. LSU: 24.9%
- at Mississippi State: 79.6%
- vs. Ole Miss: 34.3%
- vs. Texas: 12.6%
- vs. Louisiana Tech: 89.0%
- at Missouri: 28.4%
Prediction for LSU vs. Arkansas
When a coach is on the hot seat, it can be hard to gauge the true quality of his team. That was the story with Neal Brown’s West Virginia squad last year, and now, it’s playing out with Sam Pittman’s Razorbacks this season.
I initially thought I’d be betting heavily against Arkansas, expecting a bigger line, but now I’m not so sure.
Yes, the Razorbacks’ early schedule has been a bit easier than what’s coming up, but they’re sitting at 4-2 and could arguably be 5-1, if not for a surprising double-overtime loss to Oklahoma State—a game where they outgained the Cowboys by nearly 300 yards.
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This matchup feels like a potential letdown spot for LSU. After an emotional overtime win against Ole Miss, critical for their College Football Playoff hopes, the Tigers now face the Razorbacks before heading to College Station for a big showdown with Texas A&M.
I’m worried about Arkansas’ inconsistency in the passing game, but I believe they can exploit LSU’s undisciplined linebacker unit. South Carolina found success on the ground against the Tigers, and I think Arkansas could do the same in Fayetteville.
The last time out, LSU needed some serious fortune to escape with a win, and I think that luck might run out this Saturday. Garrett Nussmeier has had to be nearly flawless in a few tight games.
I know I’m going against FPM here, and that metric has proven me wrong more than once. But with a night game at the home of a team that sees LSU as a fierce rival, I’m taking the Razorbacks by a field goal in what could be the game of the weekend.
Prediction: Arkansas 31, LSU 28
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