The Louisville Cardinals entered the season with sky-high expectations, but a late-season slide has left them scrambling for a win to salvage what once looked like a standout year. Meanwhile, the Kentucky Wildcats struggled with injuries and missed the mark on a transfer portal quarterback, leaving them searching for answers.
With one regular-season game to go, Kentucky coach Mark Stoops is rolling the dice, starting true freshman Cutter Boley against their bitter rivals. But is it Jeff Brohm who’s feeling the pressure? Dive into our Louisville vs. Kentucky prediction to find out.
Louisville vs. Kentucky Betting Preview
All Louisville vs. Kentucky odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Nov. 30, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Louisville -6 - Spread
Louisville -4 - Moneyline
Louisville -175, Kentucky +145 - Over/Under
49.5 points - Game Time
Noon ET - Location
Kroger Field | Lexington, KN - Predicted Weather at Kick
31 degrees, sunny, 11 mph winds - How To Watch
SEC Network
Kentucky fans realized weeks ago that this was a lost season. The main things now are finding a quarterback for next season and figuring out if Mark Stoops is the coach of the future.
Louisville’s situation is different. Just two weeks ago, the Cardinals were in the top 25 before one of the most embarrassing losses of the season to the Stanford Cardinal. Now, the program is desperate to finish the year with a win over an underwhelming rival.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Louisville is just a 4-point road favorite. With a total of 49.5 points, Vegas expects a low-scoring game between two solid defenses. The implied final score is close to 27-23 in favor of the Cardinals.
Louisville’s Winning Probability
CFN’s FPM has the Cardinals as six-point favorites with a winning probability of 65.7%. If Louisville can win, they’d finish the year 8-4, but a loss would mean two losses out of three to end the year.
- at Kentucky: 65.7%
Kentucky’s Winning Probability
Not much has gone right for Kentucky this season, but a win over their ACC rivals would go a long way toward building positive momentum heading into the offseason. According to our metric, Kentucky has a 34.3% chance of winning at home.
- vs. Louisville: 34.3%
Prediction for Louisville vs. Kentucky
Maybe I’m off here, but from the conversations I’ve had with fans of both teams, there’s a noticeable difference in the vibe. The 7-4 Louisville Cardinals fans seem far more anxious than the 4-7 Kentucky Wildcats faithful.
It might just be that the Kentucky fans I know are already focused on basketball season, but there’s a sense of acceptance about this disappointing football season.
On the other hand, Louisville fans entered the year with sky-high expectations that have now fallen flat. With a preseason win total set at 8.5, the Cardinals are guaranteed to fall short of that mark—even with a victory on Saturday.
That unmet potential has left Louisville fans frustrated, with much of the blame aimed at head coach Jeff Brohm.
If Louisville loses this game, expect those grumblings to grow louder.
On the field, Kentucky has finally made a big change. Brock Vandagriff has been benched after struggling through multiple starts this season, and the Wildcats will now turn to true freshman Cutter Boley. A local product from just down the road from Kroger Field, Boley represents a spark of hope for a fanbase desperately seeking optimism heading into the offseason.
If Boley performs well in a win, it could make the upcoming transfer portal window even more intriguing for a Wildcats team looking to rebuild.
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Louisville, meanwhile, has been maddeningly inconsistent all season. They looked dominant in a win over a Clemson team fighting for a College Football Playoff spot, only to turn around and lose to a three-win Stanford team the very next week.
So, could Louisville drop this game and extend their five-game losing streak in the Governor’s Cup? Absolutely. But if the Cardinals play anywhere near their potential, their balanced offense—powered by a solid running game and explosive passing attack—should be enough to take control.
Unless Boley unlocks something Vandagriff never could in the passing game, Kentucky’s offense simply lacks the firepower to keep up.
Take the Cardinals to win, but don’t expect a high-scoring affair. On a cold day with two inconsistent offenses, the under feels like the safe bet.
Prediction: Louisville 26, Kentucky 20
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