The ACC is starting to look more like the Big 12—a tightly contested conference where any team can win on any given week. This week’s slate perfectly captures that dynamic: four of the seven ACC matchups feature spreads within a single score, with two others only slightly wider.
Friday night brings an exciting matchup between two 4-3 teams, as the Louisville Cardinals take on the Boston College Eagles. Both teams have gone 2-3 in their last five games, making this Louisville vs. Boston College prediction one to watch closely.
Louisville vs. Boston College Betting Preview
All Louisville vs. Boston College odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Oct. 25, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Louisville -4 - Spread
Louisville -7.5 - Moneyline
Louisville -285, Boston College +230 - Over/Under
53.5 points - Game Time
Oct. 25, 7:30 p.m. ET - Location
Alumni Stadium | Chestnut Hill, Mass. - Predicted Weather at Kick
52 degrees, clear, seven mph winds - How To Watch
ESPN2
The spread is currently Louisville -7.5, as the Cardinals are almost universally seen as the better of the two teams. The public originally bet this down slightly, as the line was posted at -7 and moved to -6.5, but now sits at -7.5. With a total of 53.5 points, Vegas’ numbers imply a score close to 30-23 in favor of Louisville.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
Louisville’s Winning Probability
FPM is close to the spread here, giving the Cardinals a 61.9% chance to win the game, translating to an implied spread of about 6.5 points in favor of Louisville. The Cardinals have a wide range of outcomes this season, as they’re slight favorites in three of five remaining games.
- at Clemson: 20.7%
- at Stanford: 77.4%
- vs. Pittsburgh: 54.3%
- at Kentucky: 50.8%
Boston College’s Winning Probability
FPM is slightly higher on Boston College in this one, as the metric has them as four-point underdogs. The Monarchs have a 38.1% chance to win the game. The Eagles will be underdogs in four of their remaining five games.
- vs. Syracuse: 47.2%
- at SMU: 25.1%
- vs. North Carolina: 67.7%
- vs. Pittsburgh: 39.4%
Prediction for Louisville vs. Boston College
There are plenty of factors in play that could sway your pick in either direction, from underlying metrics to matchups to the storylines surrounding the game.
For starters, there are the home/away splits to consider. Boston College is 3-0 at home this season, while Louisville has leaned heavily on home-field advantage, playing five of their games at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium and going 1-1 in their only two road games.
Then there’s the recent performance of each team. While both are 2-3 over their last five games, their paths to that record differ significantly.
Louisville is 1-3 in one-score games this season, with losses to three teams that are currently ranked in the AP Top 25.
Boston College, on the other hand, is 2-1 in one-score games, securing tight home wins against Michigan State and Western Kentucky, and adding a late touchdown against Missouri to narrow the margin in what was otherwise a lopsided game.
What really stands out to me, though, is a particular matchup that could define the game.
FREE: Sign up for the College Football Network Newsletter to receive unique stories from the world of college football directly to your inbox!
Last season, Boston College’s Thomas Castellanos ranked third in the ACC in rushing and was the top rusher among quarterbacks. This year, though, he’s struggled to find his rhythm on the ground, failing to reach 20 rushing yards in five of seven games within Bill O’Brien’s pro-style offense.
Louisville, meanwhile, has struggled against dual-threat quarterbacks. In fact, their loss to Miami last week marked the first FBS game this season where an opposing quarterback didn’t lead their team in rushing against the Cardinals. Even then, Cam Ward’s 22-yard scramble on 3rd-and-17 ultimately sealed Louisville’s fate.
The key question is: Can (or will) Castellanos find success running against Louisville’s defense?
Boston College has some weapons on offense, but they’ve been limited to scoring between 14 and 28 points in games against FBS opponents this season.
Louisville is the better team overall, and I trust Jeff Brohm more than Bill O’Brien in close games (Brohm went 5-1 last season in one-score games, and I believe Louisville’s struggles in tight games this year are largely due to bad luck).
That being said, I like Boston College to cover at home in a low-scoring affair. If you can get Boston College +7, that’s even better. I still think Louisville will win outright, so expect a close contest. In fact, I’m right in line with the FPM on this one.
Prediction: Louisville 28, Boston College 24
College Football Network has you covered with the latest from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, and every Group of Five conference and FBS Independent program.