The ACC is shaping up to resemble the Big 12—a highly competitive conference where any team can come out on top each week. This week’s matchups illustrate that parity perfectly: four of the seven ACC games feature spreads within a single score, with two others not far behind.
Friday night kicks off with an intriguing clash between two 4-3 teams: the Louisville Cardinals and the Boston College Eagles. Both squads have gone 2-3 in their last five games, making this Louisville vs. Boston College prediction especially compelling.
Louisville vs. Boston College Betting Preview
All Louisville vs. Boston College odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Oct. 25, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Louisville -4 - Spread
Louisville -7.5 - Moneyline
Louisville -285, Boston College +230 - Over/Under
53.5 points - Game Time
Oct. 25, 7:30 p.m. ET - Location
Alumni Stadium | Chestnut Hill, Mass. - Predicted Weather at Kick
52 degrees, clear, seven mph winds - How To Watch
ESPN2
The spread is currently Louisville -7.5, as the Cardinals are almost universally seen as the better of the two teams. The public originally bet this down slightly, as the line was posted at -7 and moved to -6.5, but now sits at -7.5. With a total of 53.5 points, Vegas’ numbers imply a score close to 30-23 in favor of Louisville.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
Louisville’s Winning Probability
FPM is close to the spread here, giving the Cardinals a 61.9% chance to win the game, translating to an implied spread of about 6.5 points in favor of Louisville. The Cardinals have a wide range of outcomes this season, as they’re slight favorites in three of five remaining games.
- at Clemson: 20.7%
- at Stanford: 77.4%
- vs. Pittsburgh: 54.3%
- at Kentucky: 50.8%
Boston College’s Winning Probability
FPM is slightly higher on Boston College in this one, as the metric has them as four-point underdogs. The Monarchs have a 38.1% chance to win the game. The Eagles will be underdogs in four of their remaining five games.
- vs. Syracuse: 47.2%
- at SMU: 25.1%
- vs. North Carolina: 67.7%
- vs. Pittsburgh: 39.4%
Prediction for Louisville vs. Boston College
Several factors could influence your pick in this matchup, from advanced metrics to key matchups and the storylines surrounding the game.
First, let’s look at the home/away splits. Boston College has been strong at home, boasting a 3-0 record, while Louisville has relied on home-field advantage, playing five of their games at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium and managing just a 1-1 record in their two road games.
Then there’s each team’s recent form. While both teams have gone 2-3 over their last five games, how they arrived at those records is quite different.
Louisville is 1-3 in one-score games this season, with all three losses coming against teams currently ranked in the AP Top 25.
Boston College, meanwhile, is 2-1 in close contests, notching tight home wins over Michigan State and Western Kentucky, and scoring a late touchdown to narrow the margin against Missouri in a game that was otherwise one-sided.
What really catches my eye, though, is a specific matchup that could be pivotal in this game.
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Last year, Boston College’s Thomas Castellanos ranked third in the ACC in rushing and led all quarterbacks on the ground. This season, however, he’s struggled to find his footing in Bill O’Brien’s pro-style offense, failing to surpass 20 rushing yards in five of seven games.
Louisville, on the other hand, has had a tough time defending against dual-threat quarterbacks. Their recent loss to Miami was the first time this season that an opposing quarterback didn’t lead their team in rushing against the Cardinals. Even so, Cam Ward’s 22-yard scramble on a crucial 3rd-and-17 helped seal the win against Louisville.
The big question is: Can Castellanos break through on the ground against Louisville’s defense?
Boston College has some capable offensive weapons, but they’ve been held to between 14 and 28 points in games against FBS opponents this season.
Overall, Louisville is the better team, and I trust Jeff Brohm more than Bill O’Brien in close games (Brohm went 5-1 in one-score games last season, and I believe Louisville’s struggles in close games this year are more about bad luck).
That said, I like Boston College to cover at home in a low-scoring battle. If you can get Boston College +7, even better. While I still think Louisville will win outright, it should be a close game. I’m aligned with the FPM on this one.
Prediction: Louisville 28, Boston College 24
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