Liberty vs. Sam Houston Prediction: Can Hunter Watson Extinguish the Flames?

    Our Liberty vs. Sam Houston prediction dives into a matchup with CUSA Championship implications, featuring two talented yet unpredictable offenses.

    Conference USA couldn’t have scripted a better finish to its schedule—even if it’s purely by chance. With the top four teams squaring off and a three-way tie for second place, there’s only one week left to sort it all out.

    The Liberty Flames hold their fate in their own hands, while the Sam Houston Bearkats need a little help. Which team will step up and position itself for a shot at the conference title? Dive into our Liberty vs. Sam Houston prediction for insights on the spread, winner, and total.

    CFN CFB Playoff Predictor
    College Football Network’s College Football Playoff Predictor is a tool that allows you to play out various weekly scenarios to see how the CFP picture changes with each scenario.

    Liberty vs. Sam Houston Betting Preview

    All Liberty vs. Sam Houston odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Nov. 29, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.

    • CFN FPM Spread
      Liberty -1
    • Spread
      Liberty -2.5
    • Moneyline
    • Liberty -130,  Sam Houston +110
    • Over/Under
      47.5 points
    • Game Time
      3:30 ET
    • Location
      Elliott T. Bowers Stadium | Huntsville, Tex.
    • Predicted Weather at Kick
      59 degrees, partly cloudy, 8 mph winds
    • How To Watch
      CBS Sports Network

    Friday’s Liberty vs. Sam Houston game has more juice than many predicted before the season. Liberty was an overwhelming favorite to repeat as CUSA Champion, while Sam Houston won three games last season. But here they are, playing for a spot in the CUSA Championship Game.

    MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor

    Liberty is a slight road favorite of just three points, while the total of 47.5 points tracks with Sam Houston’s tendency to play close, low-scoring games this year. The Bearkats need help to reach the championship game, where the Jacksonville State Gamecocks await one of three possible opponents.

    Liberty’s Winning Probability

    CFN’s FPM puts this closer to a toss-up than Liberty fans would like, giving the Flames a 51.2% chance to win against Sam Houston. If the Flames win, they’ll make the CUSA Championship Game against Jacksonville State next week.

    • at Sam Houston: 51.2%

    Sam Houston’s Winning Probability

    On the flip side, the Bearkats have a 48.8% win probability. The Bearkats also need Jacksonville State to beat the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers since Sam Houston lost to them in mid-October. FPM gives the Gamecocks a similar 48.8% chance to win on Saturday. Accordingly, the Bearkats have a 23.8% chance of making the CUSA Championship Game at the time of writing.

    • vs. Liberty: 48.8%

    Prediction for Liberty vs. Sam Houston

    I didn’t have the Conference USA title race pegged as one of the most exciting storylines in college football this season, yet here we are. With a three-way tie for second place and the top four teams squaring off this weekend, the drama is undeniable.

    For Liberty, the path is clear: win, and the Flames are in. For Sam Houston, it’s a bit more complicated. The Bearkats not only need to win on Friday but also have to hope for a Western Kentucky loss on Saturday.

    Sam Houston’s chances hinge on quarterback Hunter Watson. Watson was having a breakout season before an injury in the Western Kentucky game sidelined him. While he’s back on the field, he hasn’t quite returned to his pre-injury form.

    Before that October 16 matchup, the Bearkats were averaging 31.8 points per game. Since then, they haven’t cracked 20 points in regulation.

    Thankfully, the defense has picked up the slack. Allowing just 12 points per game, Sam Houston’s defense has been lights out. They’ll face a Liberty offense that has been hot and cold as of late. The Flames have leaned on their ground game against weaker rushing defenses, but their passing attack remains a big question mark.

    For the Bearkats to pull off the upset, they’ll need to turn this into a grind-it-out battle. If the game turns into a shootout, Liberty has the firepower to run away with it. But if Sam Houston can slow the pace and keep possessions limited, their chances of flipping the game with one big play go up significantly.

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    Hunter Watson needs to step up and deliver on Friday. Oddly enough, he hasn’t had a game this season where he’s excelled as both a passer and a runner. In nine of his ten games, he’s either surpassed 100 yards rushing or 125 yards passing—but never both in the same outing.

    If ever there was a time to truly be a dual threat, it’s now.

    In the end, I trust Jamey Chadwell to have Liberty prepared. He’s more likely to scheme up a couple of critical scores than for the Sam Houston offense to suddenly rediscover its groove at the perfect moment.

    The best bet here is the under, as I don’t see these teams trading enough points to hit 48. While I lean toward Liberty winning and covering, it’ll likely be a close one.

    Ultimately, I feel more confident in the offenses struggling to string together consistent drives, setting up a low-scoring but entertaining game.

    Prediction: Liberty 20, Sam Houston 16

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