Kirk Ferentz and the Iowa Hawkeyes have a chance to make the College Football Playoff. Who could have predicted that in the preseason? They lost last week to Oregon. What did that get them? A one spot drop to number 21. There are only three games left on the schedule. Do the Hawkeyes have enough to make it into the top 12? Let’s take a look:
Can Iowa Make The Playoffs?
Iowa being inside the top 25 leaves them in the playoff conversation, plain and simple. While it isn’t an easy road ahead, the Hawkeyes will only need to jump 10 spots if we account for the Group of 5 bid. Left on the schedule are a ranked game against USC, and then Michigan State and Nebraska. Winning out looks pretty doable if they can get through the Trojans this weekend.
The Hawkeyes need teams in front of them to lose. They are not in a position to just win out and make a jump. If they are able to get through the season undefeated, they would be comparing resumes with SEC teams. Kirk Ferentz and company will need some help to make a run.
Breaking Down Iowa’s College Football Playoff Odds in 2025
Other contenders are the biggest threat here. Texas has both Georgia and Texas A&M left on their schedule. If they can win one of those games, they have a resume that is a lot better than the Hawkeyes. The same goes for Oklahoma, which has only one ranked game left. The Sooners losing this weekend to #4 Alabama will probably look a lot better than a loss to unranked Iowa State. The Hawkeyes’ only potential for a ranked win is against #17 USC this weekend.
The best shot for the Hawkeyes is to make the Big 10 championship. With a 4-2 record, they are not in a great spot for that either. For them to get in, they would need Oregon and Michigan to drop a game down the stretch. While that’s pretty doable, the kicker is Ohio State and Indiana. One of those teams will somehow have to lose twice to give the Hawkeyes a chance.
The other option is that everyone ahead of the Hawkeyes drops at least one game. This wouldn’t include most of the teams in the top 10. If upsets rack up, the committee could favor the Hawkeyes over a bunch of other 3-loss teams.
Final Thoughts
While it isn’t going to be the easiest path, Iowa is still in the picture. A win against the Trojans this weekend would go a long way toward seeing how big that picture is. If they can get through their schedule without another loss, who knows, maybe just maybe the Hawkeyes will reach the 2025 College Football Playoffs.
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