It’s been more than seven decades since the Kentucky Wildcats and the Texas Longhorns last crossed paths on the gridiron. That game, played on a September afternoon in 1951, ended in a narrow 7-6 Texas victory—a scoreline etched in history but long forgotten by time.
Now, these two programs will meet again in the shadow of DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium. The stakes are different, and the stage is much larger. For Kentucky (4-6, 1-6 SEC), it’s a chance to salvage a season and make a statement against one of college football’s titans. For Texas (9-1, 5-1), ranked No. 3 in the nation, it’s another step in a march toward playoff glory.
Who wins? Our Kentucky vs. Texas prediction holds the answers.
Kentucky vs. Texas Betting Preview
All Kentucky vs. Texas odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Tuesday, Nov. 19, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Texas -21.5 - Spread
Texas -20.5 - Moneyline
Kentucky +1000, Texas -1400 - Over/Under
47.5 points - Game time
3:30 p.m. ET - Location
DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium | Austin, TX - Predicted Weather at Kick
76 degrees, partly cloudy, 9 mph winds - How To Watch
ABC
The No. 3 ranked Longhorns opened as a full three-touchdown favorite at -21. Since then, that number has teetered between -21 and -19 and has now settled at -20.5. This number will likely see more movement before kickoff on Saturday afternoon.
MORE: 2024 College Football Power Rankings
The total has been a bit quieter. It opened at 46.5 and has only seen a slight jump to 47. Those are the only two numbers the total has hit since the opening, and will likely end within a point of that in either direction on the kickoff.
Kentucky’s Winning Probability
According to CFN’s Football Playoff Meter, the Wildcats have a 5.7% chance of defeating the Longhorns on Saturday.
If the win probabilities hold, Kentucky will finish its 2024 campaign at a disappointing 4-8. That would be the program’s worst finish under head coach Mark Stoops since his inaugural season in Lexington — when the Wildcats finished 2-10 in 2013.
- at Texas: 5.7%
- vs. Louisville: 42.6%
Texas’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, Texas has a 94.3% chance of defeating Kentucky at home on Saturday.
If the win probabilities hold, the Longhorns will finish 2024 at 11-1 and have a spot in the SEC title game in their first season as a member of the SEC.
This would be an excellent follow-up to its 2023 campaign when the Longhorns finished 12-2 and made it to the CFP semi-final. If they finish 11-1, Texas will have an excellent shot at earning a top-4 seed in the 12-team CFP, which comes with a first-round bye.
- vs. Kentucky: 94.3%
- at Texas A&M: 58.9%
Prediction for Kentucky vs. Texas
Texas enters this matchup riding the high of three straight wins after a 20-10 triumph over Arkansas in Fayetteville. Yet, for all the celebration, the Longhorns couldn’t quite meet expectations, failing to cover as 12.5-point favorites. Their defense held firm, and the under easily hit, but questions linger.
Quinn Ewers threw for 176 yards and two touchdowns—efficient yet unremarkable. Since their humbling loss to the Georgia Bulldogs on October 19, Texas has steadied the ship, but the stakes only climb higher from here.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Meanwhile, Kentucky’s season has been a rollercoaster. Their 13-12 heartbreaker against Georgia in mid-September showed grit, and they followed it with a stunning 20-17 upset of then-No. 6 Ole Miss on the road.
But consistency has eluded the Wildcats. At their best, they’ve proven they can stand toe-to-toe with the nation’s elite; at their worst, they’ve stumbled in crucial moments.
I anticipate an early defensive battle on Saturday. Stoops has shown he can prepare his team for big spots, which has typically translated into tough, hard-nosed defensive struggles. The Longhorns come away with the victory, but it’s not a total laugher.
Prediction: Texas 27, Kentucky 13