If your sportsbook offered preseason lines, I hope you snagged the under because both the Kentucky Wildcats and Tennessee Volunteers are coming in with some pretty lackluster offensive performances.
This game has all the makings of one of the weekend’s quirkiest matchups, so our Kentucky vs. Tennessee prediction explores what to expect from two teams that have been anything but steady.
Kentucky vs. Tennessee Betting Preview
All Kentucky vs. Tennessee odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Nov. 2, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Tennessee -19 - Spread
Tennessee -17.5 - Moneyline
Tennessee -950, Kentucky +625 - Over/Under
45.5 points - Game Time
Nov. 2, 7:45 p.m. ET - Location
Neyland Stadium | Knoxville, Tenn. - Predicted Weather at Kick
68 degrees, cloudy, 3 mph winds - How To Watch
SEC Network
While the Tennessee and Kentucky offenses have struggled mightily, the defenses have been excellent. Tennessee has pulled out more of their close games and still have a shot at the College Football Playoff, so a win Saturday would be extremely important.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The line currently sits at Tennessee -16.5, where it has been since the start of the week, despite most of the bets being on the Volunteers to cover. The total is at 45.5 points, implying a final score close to 31-14 in favor of the Volunteers.
Kentucky’s Winning Probability
CFN’s FPM is a bit lower on the Wildcats, who are 19-point underdogs, with a win probability of just 7.7% per the metric. The metric has the Wildcats as underdogs in every remaining game against FBS foes, and at this point, bowl eligibility seems extremely unlikely.
- at Tennessee: 7.7%
- vs. Murray State: 96%
- at Texas: 6.1%
- vs. Louisville: 42.8%
Tennessee’s Winning Probability
Conversely, CFN’s FPM gives Tennessee a 92.3% chance to win and has the Volunteers as heavy favorites in four of their remaining five games. A date with Georgia looms large as the Volunteers try to look good for the College Football Playoff Committee
- vs. Kentucky: 92.3%
- vs. Mississippi State: 98.8%
- at Georgia: 31.2%
- vs. UTEP: 99.9%
- vs. Vanderbilt: 82.1%
Prediction for Kentucky vs. Tennessee
The storyline around these teams has evolved in surprisingly similar ways since the season kicked off.
Heading into the year, both teams carried sky-high expectations, largely thanks to their quarterbacks. Nico Iamaleava and Brock Vandagriff entered as the SEC’s top-ranked recruits among starters, though neither had much starting experience.
Fans hoped these former five-stars would thrive right out of the gate in the SEC. Yet two-thirds of the way in, calling them average starters might be generous.
Vandagriff has struggled to push the ball downfield against any team with a competent pass rush, and he’s thrown some head-scratching interceptions.
Iamaleava has shown flashes, but his deep ball has been hit-or-miss, and his pocket awareness could use work. The upside? Against a Kentucky defense that’s fierce against weak offensive lines but shaky when QBs have time, Iamaleava should have some chances to go deep.
I’m wary of the spread here. Kentucky has proven they can hang with top teams (Georgia, Ole Miss) but also let things unravel quickly (South Carolina, Florida).
This game could end 13-12 or 31-14—there’s no telling. Stoops usually crafts a solid game plan with his back against the wall, and I think Kentucky could control the clock and pound the run. Still, I’m not optimistic about Vandagriff’s chances when he drops back against this front.
On the flip side, if Iamaleava can connect on a few deep shots, Tennessee could strike fast. If not, it might be another tough night for their offense.
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I’m not fully sold, but I’m leaning toward the Wildcats to cover. If they do, it’ll be through grinding it out and stifling Tennessee’s run game.
I’m liking the under here too—points could be tough to come by. The under might not be flashy, but it’s profitable come November. You’ll sweat it with a low total, but don’t expect Kentucky’s offense to put up big numbers while their defense keeps it tighter than expected.
Prediction: Tennessee 24, Kentucky 13
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