The No. 6 Ole Miss Rebels enter SEC play on Saturday after turning in one of the most dominant starts to any college football season on record, particularly on offense. Their first opponent in SEC play: The Kentucky Wildcats, who have already played a pair of conference games and rank among the top 10 in FBS in total defense (217.0 yards per game).
A clash of the Titans is set to happen in an underrated SEC game in Week 5.
Kentucky vs. Ole Miss Betting Preview
The Kentucky vs. Ole Miss odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Sept. 28. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Ole Miss -20.5 - Spread
Ole Miss -16 - Moneyline
Kentucky +550, Ole Miss -800 - Over/Under
52 - Game Time
12 p.m. ET - Location
Vaught-Hemingway Stadium | Oxford, MS - Predicted Weather at Kick
71 degrees, mostly sunny and warm - How To Watch
ABC/ESPN+
Ole Miss is one of three SEC teams, along with Texas and Tennessee, to kick off the season 4-0 both straight-up and against the spread. While the moneyline has tightened a bit midweek, the Rebels remain the favorites. They’ve been favored by at least 21 points in every game this season and boast a strong 9-2-2 record as the spread favorite since the start of 2023.
Under Lane Kiffin, the Rebels have been a solid bet in non-conference games, covering the spread nearly 74% of the time (14-5-1 ATS). However, that success hasn’t translated as well to SEC matchups, where they’ve covered in less than 44% of games (13-17-3 ATS) during the same period.
After easily going over the total in their 76-0 season-opening win against Furman, the last three Ole Miss games have all hit the under.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
On the other side, Kentucky has covered the spread in three of its four games this season, including their lone game as an underdog, where they narrowly lost to Georgia by just one point as 22-point underdogs.
Since the start of the 2021 season, the Wildcats have covered the spread in 11 of their last 19 games as underdogs. Kentucky’s games, especially in SEC play, have also tended to be low-scoring, with 16 of their last 26 conference games going under the total.
Kentucky Winning Probability
Unlike their opponent (keep reading to see why), the Wildcats season is starting to look a bit bleak. Traveling to Oxford was never going to be easy. But the rest of their schedule looks just as difficult.
Here are their winning probabilities in each game remaining using CFN’s Football Playoff Meter and Strength of Schedule metrics.
- Vanderbilt 70.3%
- @ Florida 46.2%
- Auburn 61.1%
- @ Tennessee 7.7%
- Murray State 95.5%
- @ Texas 5.1%
- Louisville 38.9%
Yes, they should get by a few SEC foes who are down on their luck right now, but away games Florida, Tennessee, and Texas are tough ones.
Ole Miss Winning Probability
Using CFN’s Strength of Schedule and Football Playoff Meter, we can look at just how the Rebels should fare through the rest of the season. Don’t get caught up with looking past Kentucky, Rebs, because the rest of the season is a doozy.
Yet, the Rebels have a chance, thanks to being at home in some key matchups down the stretch:
- @ South Carolina 81.6%
- @ LSU 50.4%
- Oklahoma 87.4%
- @ Arkansas 83.5%
- Georgia 51.8%
- @ Florida 87.8%
- Mississippi State 96.8%
Each winning probability above indicates the chances Ole Miss finished with the higher score across 10,000 simulations. This does not mean they’ll go 7-0 down the stretch, but the road map is certainly there.
Prediction for Kentucky vs. Ole Miss
Lane Kiffin and his staff have certainly elevated expectations in Oxford, even before taking care of business against Furman, Middle Tennessee State, Wake Forest, and Georgia Southern.
The Rebels lead the nation in scoring offense and are tied for first in scoring defense among all FBS teams. But the early-season tune-up is over, as Kentucky arrives in Oxford with a formidable SEC defense. The Wildcats held a high-powered Georgia offense to just 13 points only two weeks ago.
Although Dart has plenty of options in the passing game, his chemistry with Harris rivals that of any quarterback-receiver tandem in the country. Without a true shutdown corner, Kentucky will look to defensive tackle Deone Walker—the Wildcats’ top NFL prospect and a likely first-rounder—to generate pressure and disrupt Dart’s rhythm.
Playing this game at home is crucial for the Rebels, as their next two contests are tough road tests at South Carolina on Oct. 5 and LSU on Oct. 12.
Even though Mark Stoops, Kentucky’s all-time winningest coach, has a stout defense that recently stifled Carson Beck and Georgia, this matchup is a step up in competition that may be more than the Wildcats can handle against what the Rebels have in store.
Prediction: Ole Miss 45, Kentucky 6
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