Kent State vs. Buffalo Prediction: CJ Ogbonna Keeps Bulls Alive In MAC Championship Game Hunt

    Can the Golden Flashes avoid a winless season against the Bulls? Our Kent State vs. Buffalo prediction doesn’t paint an optimistic picture for the road team.

    The Kent State Golden Flashes and Buffalo Bulls wrap up their regular seasons on Tuesday night, bringing the final installment of 2024 midweek MACtion to the state of New York. These two teams couldn’t have had more contrasting years—one aiming to end a season that surpassed expectations on a high note, the other fighting to avoid the embarrassment of a winless campaign.

    Who comes out on top? Our Kent State vs. Buffalo prediction breaks it all down—from the latest betting odds to what’s at stake for both programs as they close the book on the 2024 college football season.

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    Kent State vs. Buffalo Betting Preview

    All Kent State vs. Buffalo odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Tuesday, Nov. 26, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.

    • CFN FPM Spread
      Buffalo -15
    • Spread
      Buffalo -23.5
    • Moneyline
      Buffalo -1450, Kent State +850
    • Over/Under
      49.5 points
    • Game time
      7 p.m. ET
    • Location
      UB Stadium | Buffalo, NY
    • Predicted Weather at Kick
      32 degrees, partly cloudy and breezy, 15 mph winds
    • How to Watch
      ESPN+

    Tuesday night marks the 30th edition of this Kent State vs. Buffalo matchup. They’re closely separated in the head-to-head record, with the Bulls’ win a year ago edging them ahead, 15-14 all-time. Don’t expect Tuesday’s game to resemble anything as close to their historical record, as Buffalo is a massive favorite for the game — and with just reason, given the trajectory of the two.

    MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor

    Betting the Buffalo moneyline won’t turn your hard-earned dollars into riches, but is there any value in the spread or points totals? Kent State has covered the spread just three times this season, while Buffalo is 3-1 ATS as a favorite. They’re also 2-1 ATS in their last three. The last seven Bulls’ games have gone over the points total, and they may hit the 49 line on their own.

    Kent State’s Winning Probability

    According to the CFN FPM, Kent State has a 12.6% chance of beating Buffalo on Tuesday night. Our metric has actually given the Golden Flashes too much credit this season, projecting a 1-11 season when they will end the year with a 0-12 overall record that includes a 0-8 MAC campaign if they lose to the Bulls. It will be their first winless season since 1998 if they fall on Tuesday.

    Buffalo’s Winning Probability

    Conversely, Buffalo has an 87.4% chance of defeating Kent State in their season finale on Tuesday night. Our metric predicted a 9-3 season for Pete Lembo’s team, and if they beat the Golden Flashes, they will end the year 8-4 with a 6-2 MAC campaign. They had already secured bowl eligibility earlier in the year, returning to the postseason after a year’s absence in 2023.

    Prediction for Kent State vs. Buffalo

    Some corners of the media (and fan base) were less than thrilled when Buffalo brought in special teams guru Pete Lembo to replace Maurice Linguist, who departed for Alabama. Fast forward a few months, and Lembo has silenced the skeptics, leading the Bulls back to the postseason while keeping them in contention for a spot in the MAC Championship Game.

    Tuesday night offers Lembo and his squad the chance to notch their first eight-win season since 2019. Standing in their way is a winless Kent State team, burdened by both a dismal on-field record and a head coach embroiled in controversy over financial misconduct. So, who has the upper hand, and where will the key moments of this matchup play out?

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    This one isn’t hard to figure out—Buffalo holds the clear advantage. Kent State’s winless record tells the story. The Golden Flashes rank dead last in the nation in scoring offense (14.5 points per game) and scoring defense (44.2 points allowed per game).

    Sure, Kent State’s early schedule, loaded with Power Five opponents—including two College Football Playoff contenders—was a nightmare, but the struggles didn’t ease up in MAC play. Their run defense has been especially porous, setting the stage for Buffalo running back Al-Jay Henderson to build on his 774 rushing yards (976 total scrimmage yards) and eight touchdowns this season.

    Quarterback CJ Ogbonna has also been red-hot, throwing three touchdown passes in each of the Bulls’ last two games while adding three rushing scores over the past three weeks. Against a Kent State defense that has been overwhelmed by every offense it’s faced, Buffalo’s attack should continue to thrive as November winds down.

    MORE: Complete MAC Championship Game Scenarios Ahead of Week 14

    Buffalo’s defense might not be the MAC’s best, but it’s been highly effective, led by linebacker Shaun Dolac, who has a knack for creating turnovers. The Bulls lead the conference in turnover margin per game, while Kent State averages nearly two giveaways per contest. It’s hard to envision a scenario where these two teams compete on equal footing in Week 14.

    Prediction: Buffalo 40, Kent State 17

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