The BYU Cougars are playing with fire, but while they’ve come close to putting their hand on the stove, they have yet to be burned. The Cougars survived a third one-score game in six weeks, coming perilously close to losing against rival Utah.
But the Cougars remain undefeated, with just three more tests standing in the way of regular-season perfection. Will the Kansas Jayhawks be the team to stop the Cougars, or just the next losers in the middle of a long BYU winning streak? Find out what we think in this Kansas vs. BYU prediction.
Kansas vs. BYU Betting Preview
All Kansas vs. BYU odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Sunday, Nov. 10, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
BYU -15 - Spread
BYU -3.5 - Moneyline
BYU -170, Kansas +142 - Over/Under
55.5 points - Game Time
Nov. 16, 10:15 p.m. ET - Location
LaVell Edwards Stadium | Provo, Utah - Predicted Weather at Kick
34 degrees, cloudy, 3 mph winds - How To Watch
ESPN
Vegas continues to fade BYU, as the Cougars have been more than a touchdown favorite over just two FBS opponents this year. Yet, the Cougars are 7-2 against the spread. Kansas, on the other hand, has covered in three straight after starting 0-6 against the spread.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
With a total of 55.5 points and a spread of 3.5 points, Vegas implies a final score close to 29-26 in favor of the Cougars.
Kansas’ Winning Probability
Despite their recent success, the CFN’s Football Playoff Meter still doesn’t give them much value. While bowl eligibility is technically possible, it’d take three fairly sizable upsets to get there. The Jayhawks have just a 12.2% chance to win, per the metric.
- at BYU: 12.2%
- vs. Colorado: 26.6%
- at Baylor: 35.9%
BYU’s Winning Probability
Conversely, BYU has an 87.8% chance of beating the Jayhawks at home. The formula is simple — keep winning. While the Cougars could likely afford a single slip-up while still making the Big 12 Championship, a regular-season loss would hurt their chances of an at-large bid to the College Football Playoff if they were to lose again in the championship.
- vs. Kansas: 87.8%
- at Arizona State: 65.7%
- vs. Houston: 91.1%
Prediction for Kansas vs. BYU
It’s been too little far too late for Kansas, as the Jayhawks limped out to a 1-5 start before finally figuring things out against Houston and playing rival Kansas State to a near win.
Then the Jayhawks dismantled Iowa State to prove their recent form isn’t just a fluke.
But can they beat the Cougars? Once again, Vegas thinks BYU could go down. So far, in these spots, the Cougars have passed.
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I don’t plan on being the person who’s “first” to predict BYU’s downfall. Sure, there’s an element of luck involved in winning close games, but there’s also a skill and culture that allows the Cougars to never be truly out of any game.
I think the Cougars were a bit caught off-guard against Utah, as Kyle Whittingham and the Utes rolled with a brand-new starter at quarterback. The Cougars went into halftime down 21-10 before battling back for a last-second field goal to win it.
There was certainly an element of luck to how it went down, but good teams put themselves in the position to win.
You could talk me into a Kansas upset here, but I’m sticking with the Cougars. While Utah took away BYU quarterback Jake Retzlaff’s legs, I think the Cougars will figure out how to get him on the move where he’s most comfortable.
I see this Jayhawks front as one the Cougars can run on and control the clock like they want to do.
Two of the last three opponents have surprised BYU with something the Cougars weren’t ready for. I don’t think Kansas has enough up its sleeve (or a backup quarterback worth starting out of nowhere) to do that to the Cougars.
Take the Cougars and the points as they pull away late like they have so many times this year. Vegas may try to tell you that the Cougars aren’t as good as the record says, but Vegas has also been wrong about BYU all season.
I think BYU wants to score a lot in this one after a few sluggish offensive performances, pushing it over. Kansas will hit a big play or two, but the Cougars can force Jalon Daniels into some bad throws and find success in all three phases
Prediction: BYU 35, Kansas 27
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