The Kansas State Wildcats looked like they had hit their stride—until a scrappy Kansas team almost threw them off course last week. While the Wildcats managed to hang on, was that narrow escape just an off night or a signal of tougher times ahead?
On the other side, the Houston Cougars are navigating a bumpy first year with Willie Fritz at the helm, but there are signs of progress. Will the Cougars manage to pull off an upset, or will the Wildcats keep rolling in the Big 12? Here’s our take on the Kansas State vs. Houston matchup.
Kansas State vs. Houston Betting Preview
All Kansas State vs. Houston odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Nov. 2, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Kansas State -13 - Spread
Kansas State -12 - Moneyline
Kansas State -485, Houston +370 - Over/Under
46 points - Game Time
Nov. 2, 3:30 ET - Location
TDECU Stadium | Houston, Texas - Predicted Weather at Kick
82 degrees, partly cloudy, 11 mph winds - How To Watch
FOX
Kansas State seems to have figured things out after starting slow, and while the shine in the immediate aftermath of Houston’s quarterback change has seemingly worn off, the Cougars are playing better football in October.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The Wildcats are just under two-touchdown favorites. With a total of 46.5 points, Vegas is not impressed with Houton’s offense, implying a final score close to 30-17 in favor of the Wildcats.
Kansas State’s Winning Probability
Sitting at 7-1, the Wildcats have a real path to the Big 12 Championship and College Football Playoff. They’re heavy favorites, per CFN’s FPM, in their next three before a showdown with Big 12 frontrunner Iowa State to end the year. The Wildcats have a greater than 75% to win each of their next three games, including an 82.8% chance to beat the Cougars Saturday.
- at Houston: 82.8%
- vs. Arizona State: 75.3%
- vs. Cincinnati: 81.1%
- at Iowa State: 44.4%
Houston’s Winning Probability
After starting poorly this season, Houston seems to be putting it all together, but a bowl seems unlikely at this point. The Cougars would need to win three of four to end the year, and they’ll be underdogs in all four games, including a winning probability of just 17.2% Saturday.
- vs. Kansas State: 17.2%
- at Arizona: 21.9%
- vs. Baylor: 35.4%
- at BYU: 6.1%
Prediction for Kansas State vs. Houston
Kansas State has mostly followed Avery Johnson’s lead this season, and it’s been a promising path. While BYU’s defense threw him off balance in a blowout earlier on, Johnson has since regained his footing. Last week, Kansas pushed them to the edge, but the Wildcats eked out a victory thanks to a solid defensive stand.
For Texas Tech, Morton’s injury—possibly a collarbone or shoulder issue in his non-throwing arm—puts his availability for Saturday in question.
Johnson wasn’t perfect last week, but he didn’t need to be in that hard-fought win.
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On the other side, Houston’s Zeon Chriss offers a dual-threat option, and he’s boosted the Cougars’ offense. However, their offense still has its challenges, especially against tougher teams. Last week, they scraped out a win over a struggling Utah offense, but against Kansas State, they’ll need to score early and often to stay in the game.
Kansas State has occasionally stumbled against teams with strong defensive schemes, and I think Fritz’s staff may throw some fresh looks at Johnson.
That said, the talent gap remains significant. With enough chances, the Wildcats’ offense should eventually break through. It might stay close in the early going, but Kansas State is likely to pull away and control the game.
I don’t expect Houston to add much to the total score, and I see Kansas State grinding out a low-scoring win, just covering the spread.
Prediction: Kansas State 26, Houston 10
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