The Sunflower Showdown between the Kansas Jayhawks and Kansas State Wildcats might look lopsided on paper, with Kansas holding a 65-51-5 series advantage. Yet, recent history tells a different tale, with the Wildcats dominating the last 15 matchups.
Get ready for the Saturday night clash with an in-depth look at the latest odds, spread analysis, and our Kansas vs. Kansas State prediction.
Kansas vs. Kansas State Betting Preview
All Kansas vs. Kansas State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Oct. 25, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Kansas State -12.5 - Spread
Kansas State -9.5 - Moneyline
Kansas State -340, Kansas +270 - Over/Under
55.5 points - Game Time
8:00 p.m. ET, Saturday, Oct. 26 - Location
Bill Snyder Family Stadium, Manhattan, Kan. - Predicted Weather at Kick
52 degrees, 4 mph winds, clear with periodic clouds - How To Watch
ESPN2
Although the under has hit in five of the last seven games between these two teams, the over is the trendy play:
- The total has gone over in four of Kansas’ last five contests and four of Kansas State’s last six.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
Kansas ATS has been far less productive, going 1-6 in the last seven contests, and the K-State moneyline appears juicy, as the program is 10-1 straight up in its last 11 at home.
Kansas’ Winning Probability
The FPM views this game as a near-certain loss for the Jayhawks, giving them just a 17.4% chance of winning. At 2-5, they’re fighting for a slim chance at bowl eligibility and some pride. Even if they manage to pull off an upset against the Wildcats, the path to another win looks challenging:
- vs. Iowa State: 23.4%
- at BYU: 10.9%
- vs. Colorado: 42.6%
- at Baylor: 39.4%
Kansas State’s Winning Probability
Meanwhile, at 6-1, Kansas State is in the hunt for a spot in the Big 12 Championship and a berth in the expanded College Football Playoff. Aside from a season finale against undefeated Iowa State, the Wildcats boast win probabilities of 74% or higher for the rest of their schedule, starting with an 82.6% chance against Kansas.
- at Houston: 87.4%
- vs. Arizona State: 74.6%
- vs. Cincinnati: 80.2%
- at Iowa State: 42.6%
Prediction for Kansas vs. Kansas State
Before their dominant 42-14 win over Houston, Kansas had suffered through a three-game losing streak. Meanwhile, Kansas State has put together three straight victories, including a convincing 45-18 win over West Virginia last week.
Both teams rank among the top 20 rushing offenses in the nation, but only one has a top-five run defense: K-State, sitting at fifth (while Kansas ranks 73rd).
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Then there’s the issue of the inconsistent passing games. Neither Jalon Daniels nor Avery Johnson has been particularly impressive through the air, though Johnson has a slight edge. Daniels has thrown three more interceptions (eight to five) and has a completion percentage nearly six points lower (56.6% to 62.4%).
Kansas State is expected to win this game and cover the spread, but in-state rivalry games are notoriously tough to predict. Taking the over might be the “safe” play, as the Wildcats have scored 31+ points in all but one game this season, while the Jayhawks have put up 27+ points over the last four weeks.
Prediction: Kansas State 38, Kansas 27
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