Kansas Jayhawks opens the 2025 campaign at home in Week 0 against Fresno State at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium in one of the weekend’s headline matchups.
The Jayhawks are sizable 12.5-point favorites, with an Over/Under set at 50.5 points and a moneyline around –483 for Kansas compared to +365 for Fresno State. The Bulldogs enter with new head coach Matt Entz and returning quarterback E.J. Warner, making this one of the trending storylines to monitor as early-season drama unfolds.
Kansas vs Fresno State Matchup Detailed Overview
The Jayhawks bring a veteran roster to the table that is headlined by quarterback Jalon Daniels. Daniels was injured for most of the 2024 season, but he is considered one of the top quarterbacks in the Big 12 in his return year. The Jayhawks offense will likely lean on Daniels to build a tempo and balance throughout the year in order to have a successful season.
On the Fresno State side of things, E.J. Warner has transferred in from Rice to take over the offense. Warner will look to keep pace with Daniels through the air despite having an offensive line that gave up 24 sacks last year. The Jayhawks bring multiple starters back up front, and if Fresno can’t keep Warner clean, it seems like it will be a quick contest.
Kansas Probability of Winning & Important Statistics
Kansas is a 12.5-point favorite and has an implied win probability of about 83-84 percent going on the moneyline. The Jayhawks are anchored by preseason optimism after closing strong in 2024. They also have a good amount of returning talent on offense under coach Lance Leipold, including quarterback Jalon Daniels.
Their home field advantage could add to their advantage, as the Jayhawks have just recently finished construction after not playing in Lawrence all of last year. Kansas seems like the surest thing on the board straight-up, but the cover spread can be in jeopardy should the Fresno offense get hot early.
Fresno State Chance of Winning & Facts
Fresno State is a heavy underdog with an implied win probability of nearly 17%. The Bulldogs have a fresh face in Entz, who stresses power-run football. They have E.J. Warner who averaged 307.6 passing yards a game in 2023 at Temple.
Their 2024 pass defense ranked around 216 yards per game allowed which may help contain Daniels and Kansas early in the game. Fresno State +12.5 could present value to anyone who is anticipating growing pains for the Jayhawks.
Prediction and Betting Picks for Kansas vs Fresno State
Both teams seem to have their offenses ready to go in the opening game of the season in Lawrence. The matchup is definitely between Jalon Daniels and E.J. Warner, who are both projected to have big games.
With Kansas playing in front of a home crowd for the first time in over a year, they should come out hot. While Fresno State can keep it close, the Jayhawks should have the first-half momentum to lead by a touchdown.
Best Bet: Kansas 1H -6
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