Week 12 in the Big 12 brings a showdown between two teams that have shattered preseason expectations. The Kansas Jayhawks kicked off the season with plenty of buzz, but it’s the BYU Cougars who have emerged as the surprise story, making a strong push for a postseason spot.
Who comes out on top Saturday night? Our Kansas vs. BYU prediction dives into the details—from the latest betting odds to what lies ahead for both programs as the 2024 college football season unfolds.
Kansas vs. BYU Betting Preview
All Kansas vs. BYU odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Nov. 16, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
BYU -15 - Spread
BYU -2.5 - Moneyline
BYU -135, Kansas +114 - Over/Under
56.5 points - Game Time
Nov. 16, 10:15 p.m. ET - Location
LaVell Edwards Stadium | Provo, Utah - Predicted Weather at Kick
34 degrees, cloudy, 3 mph winds - How To Watch
ESPN
Vegas continues to fade BYU, as the Cougars have been more than a touchdown favorite over just two FBS opponents this year. Yet, the Cougars are 7-2 against the spread. Kansas, on the other hand, has covered in three straight after starting 0-6 against the spread.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
With a total of 57.5 points and a spread of 2.5 points, Vegas implies a final score close to 30-27 in favor of the Cougars.
Kansas’ Winning Probability
Despite their recent success, Kansas has a 12.2% chance of beating BYU on Saturday night. Despite recent success, a difficult season against high expectations has resulted in the Jayhawks being a significant underdog in this Big 12 battle.
- at BYU: 12.2%
- vs. Colorado: 26.6%
- at Baylor: 35.9%
If those win probabilities were to hold true, Kansas would end the year with a 3-9 record, including a 2-7 Big 12 campaign. After gaining bowl eligibility the last two seasons, that would be a significant disappointment and setback for Lance Leipold’s team.
BYU’s Winning Probability
Conversely, BYU has an 87.8% chance of beating the Jayhawks at home. According to our metric, the Cougars have been favored in every game of their undefeated season so far. That said, the CFN FPM had the Big 12 frontrunner as a substantial favorite on the road at Utah in a game that was closer than projected.
- vs. Kansas: 87.8%
- at Arizona State: 65.7%
- vs. Houston: 91.1%
If those win probabilities were to hold true, the Cougars would be an undefeated 12-0 in just their second season in the Big 12, a remarkable accomplishment. They’re the favorite to book a spot in the conference title game while having an 89.8% chance of reaching the College Football Playoff.
Prediction for Kansas vs. BYU
Kansas’ resurgence has been impressive, but it feels like a case of too little, too late. After stumbling to a 1-5 start, the Jayhawks roared to life with a win over Houston and nearly upset rival Kansas State. Then came a commanding victory over Iowa State, proving their recent surge is no fluke.
But can they take down BYU? Vegas seems to think the Cougars are vulnerable, yet BYU has consistently risen to the occasion in moments like these. Time and again, they’ve shown they’re built for pressure.
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I’m not ready to count BYU out. Winning tight games isn’t just luck—it’s a mix of skill, culture, and an unshakable mindset. BYU has mastered that formula.
Take their showdown against Utah. Facing an unexpected quarterback switch and trailing 21-10 at halftime, the Cougars rallied, grinding their way to a last-second field goal victory. Sure, luck played a part, but good teams create their own breaks, and BYU keeps proving they’re one of them.
You could argue Kansas has a shot at the upset, but I’m siding with BYU. While Utah found a way to limit BYU quarterback Jake Retzlaff’s mobility, I expect the Cougars to make adjustments and get him back to doing what he does best—extending plays on the run. Kansas’ defensive front has shown vulnerabilities against the run, which aligns perfectly with BYU’s clock-controlling strategy.
Yes, the Cougars have been caught off-guard twice in recent weeks by unexpected wrinkles. But I don’t see Kansas having the firepower—or a game-changing surprise—to replicate that. BYU’s experience and resilience will carry them through, pulling away late, as they’ve done so often this season.
Vegas may keep doubting BYU, but they’ve been proven wrong all year. I expect the Cougars to respond with an offensive bounce-back, push the total over, and force Jalon Daniels into costly mistakes. Kansas might connect on a few big plays, but BYU’s edge in all three phases of the game will make the difference.
Take BYU and the points. This feels like another prime opportunity for the Cougars to make a statement.
Prediction: BYU 35, Kansas 27
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