Predicting bowl games often comes down to gauging which teams are fired up about their matchup and which are just counting down the days to the offseason. However, it’s tough to get a read on how the Iowa Hawkeyes and Missouri Tigers feel about heading to the Music City Bowl.
Let’s dive into the numbers and trends you need to know before placing a bet. Here’s our take on the Music City Bowl with this Iowa vs. Missouri prediction.
Iowa vs. Missouri Music City Bowl Betting Preview
All Iowa vs. Missouri odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Monday, Dec. 30, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Missouri -2 - Spread
Missouri -2.5 - Moneyline
Missouri -135, Iowa +114 - Over/Under
40.5 points - Game Time
Monday, Dec. 30, 2:30 p.m. ET - Location
Nissan Stadium | Nashville, TN - How To Watch
ESPN
Both of these teams are dealing with a few injuries, opt-outs, and losses to the transfer portal. Missouri is particularly hard-hit on the offensive side of the ball as top draft prospects Luther Burden III and Armand Membou have opted out, while the Tigers are also missing receiver Mookie Cooper and center Connor Tollison due to injury.
Star Iowa running back Kaleb Johnson has also opted out, and the Hawkeyes are down to one scholarship quarterback. Brendan Sullivan is the only remaining scholarship quarterback for Iowa, and he’s coming back from an injury.
It’s an indictment on the Iowa offense that this has hardly moved the line. After starting at Missouri -1.5, the line has ticked to its current number of -3. Meanwhile, the total has moved down slightly, from 41.5 to 40.5.
Iowa’s Winning Probability
CFN’s FPM is in line with Vegas, making Iowa a two-point underdog, translating to a winning probability below 50%.
- vs. Missouri: 46.6%
Missouri’s Winning Probability
Missouri is the slight favorite in this one, according to CFN’s FPM.
- vs. Iowa: 53.4%
Prediction for Iowa vs. Missouri
I’m leaning into a theory I’ve had all season about the Hawkeyes, and Iowa fans might not love me for it. Then again, they’ve watched this offense enough to probably agree.
Even with a slight uptick in points per game, I don’t believe Iowa’s offense is actually better than it was last season. Instead, the Hawkeyes have consistently struggled against strong defenses, relying heavily on Johnson’s individual brilliance to inflate the numbers against weaker opponents.
With Johnson opting out of the bowl game, we’re about to find out if my theory holds water.
I haven’t been particularly impressed with Missouri this season, but they’re a solid team and ranked. While rankings don’t always tell the full story, there’s a troubling pattern for Iowa when it comes to playing top-25 teams.
In their last four games against ranked opponents, the Hawkeyes have been outscored 127-7. That lone touchdown? A garbage-time score by Johnson late in the fourth quarter against Ohio State, when Iowa was already down 35-0.
Looking further back, Iowa has failed to score 20 points in its last six matchups against ranked teams.
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Without Johnson, where will the offense come from? He’s accounted for 23 of Iowa’s 41 offensive touchdowns this season and more than half of their total scrimmage yards.
The splits in Big Ten play make this even more glaring. Without Johnson, what is the realistic ceiling for this offense?
On the other hand, Missouri has shown more balance this season. When Brady Cook has been healthy, the Tigers have been able to move the ball effectively, even against tougher defenses. They don’t rely on a single player to carry the load. While the offense has had its share of inconsistency, it’s done enough under Cook’s leadership to secure plenty of wins.
I don’t expect Missouri to light up the scoreboard, but they should have more than enough to beat Iowa. Sorry, Hawkeye fans, but I’m genuinely curious if the offense will score at all.
It’s an Iowa bowl game. Take the under—and the other team.
Prediction: Missouri 20, Iowa 3
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