The Big 12 Conference has arguably one of the most chaotic and entertaining we’ve seen all season, and their title game is set to be just as frenetic as the 10-2 Arizona State Sun Devils and 10-2 Iowa State Cyclones dual in the home of the Dallas Cowboys.
Who will come out on top? Our Iowa State vs. Arizona State prediction examines the latest odds, win probabilities, and forecasts the winner of the Big 12 Championship Game.
Iowa State vs. Arizona State Betting Preview
All Iowa State vs. Arizona State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and correct as of Wednesday, Dec. 4, 2024. The CFN FPM Spread is from the College Football Network Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Arizona State -1 - Spread
Arizona State -2 - Moneyline
Arizona State -125, Iowa State +105 - Over/Under
51 points - Game time
Noon ET - Location
AT&T Stadium | Arlington, TX. - Predicted Weather at Kick
56 degrees, partly cloudy, 2 mph winds - How to Watch
ABC
A quirk of college football conference realignment, the Cyclones and Sun Devils meet for the very first time, having avoided each other in Arizona State’s debut season in the Big 12. Iowa State started the season in a rich vein of form, winning their opening seven games, but it’s the defacto “home team” in the Big 12 Championship Game who is the real form team in this game.
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Arizona State has won its last five games to secure a berth in the title game, and although the Cyclones opened the week as a marginal favorite, the oddsmakers have swung toward the Sun Devils as the week has progressed. They’re now a two-point favorite, and are 10-2 against the spread for the 2024 college football season. Iowa State is 2-4 ATS in their last six.
Iowa State’s Winning Probability
Iowa State ended the regular season 10-2, winning double-digit regular season games for the first time in its history. It heads to its first Big 12 Championship since 2020 as slight underdogs with the CFN FPM, with a 49.2% chance of victory. If the Cyclones were to win, it would be their first championship since 1912.
- at Arizona State: 49.2%
Arizona State’s Winning Probability
Arizona State finds themselves in the Big 12 title game in their first season in the conference after winning the Territorial Cup. They have hit 10 regular season wins for the first time in a decade and are slim favorites to win their first championship since 2007. The CFN FPM gives the Sun Devils a 50.8% chance of winning in AT&T Stadium on Saturday.
- vs. Iowa State: 50.8%
Prediction for Iowa State vs. Arizona State
The Big 12 Championship promises to be a tight affair with nothing to separate either team in the early betting.
Statistically, there is little to separate the two teams either. Both teams average precisely 32.1 points per game. However, some areas can be targeted within the numbers.
MORE: 2024 College Football Power Rankings
If the Sun Devils are to win the title game, QB Sam Leavitt will need to retain his late-season form. The Michigan State transfer has thrown for 2,44 yards, 21 touchdowns, and five interceptions this season, with WR Jordyn Tyson becoming an elite option with over 1,100 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns.
While Leavitt and Tyson have played influential roles, running back Cam Skattebo has been the backbone of this offense. The standout rusher has accumulated 1,398 yards and scored 17 touchdowns on the ground in 2024.
Coach Dillingham and his staff would be wise to rely on the star running back again this Saturday, especially since Iowa State allows an average of 173.6 rushing yards per game. This defensive issue must be addressed if the Cyclones hope to win their first championship in over a century.
Iowa State needs to focus on getting the ball to their elite receiving duo, Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel, who have played significant roles in the success of the Cyclones’ offense.
Both wide receivers have accumulated over 1,000 receiving yards in 2024, making them crucial targets for quarterback Rocco Becht as he looks to exploit the Arizona State defense, which averages 215.5 passing yards allowed per game. Additionally, Becht has excelled at distributing the football, throwing for 3,021 yards, 20 touchdowns, and eight interceptions.
This game is expected to be closely contested. Arizona State has shown that it can perform under pressure, especially in the fourth quarter. The Sun Devils have a record of 6-1 in games decided by one score, and they could very well showcase their ability to come through again on Saturday afternoon.
Prediction: Arizona State 27, Iowa State 24
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