The Iowa State Cyclones are a game away from clinching their spot in the Big 12 Championship Game by defeating rival Kansas State Wildcats. If they were to do such a thing, a berth in the College Football Playoffs would rest in the balance of the Big 12 title.
For Iowa State and their playoff chances, the road map is quite clear, and it involves winning games they should win.
Iowa State’s Big 12 Championship Odds
Entering Week 14, a four-way tie was possible for the top spot in the Big 12. With Colorado winning on Friday night, the four-way tie was intact. And then, Arizona State won, all but clinching their spot in the title game.
With one spot open, Iowa State needed to beat Kansas State to punch their own ticket to the Big 12 Championship Game, as they own the tiebreakers over Colorado and BYU if the Buffaloes and Cougars were to finish tied with the Cyclones.
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The Cyclones would have a 45.6% chance at defeating Arizona State in the title game if they were to defeat Kansas State in Week 14.
That figure is subject to chance and could rise once the data from the weekend slate is uploaded into our CFN College Football Playoff Predictor. And speaking of the playoffs, if Iowa State were to clinch their spot in the Big 12 title game, they’d have a clear road map to making the playoffs.
How Can Iowa State Make the Playoffs?
Well, first things first, they have to make the Big 12 Championship Game. If they were to win against Kansas State, that would put them through to the title game and they’d play one of their three other teams they were in contention with (Arizona State, BYU, or Colorado).
In such a scenario, Iowa State would find themselves favored — by our metrics — against Colorado and BYU, but a small underdog to Arizona State.
And in this instance, Iowa State would need to win the Big 12 in order to guarantee themselves a spot in the College Football Playoffs.
An at-large bid is almost all but out of the picture for any of the Big 12 teams, given the amount of three-loss SEC teams sitting in the ‘last four out’ positions of the proverbial playoff bubble.
Iowa State is absolutely in win-now mode against Kansas State to end the year and then would need to carry that mantra over to win the Big 12 and guarantee themselves a spot in the playoffs.
Farmageddon is crazy, but Iowa State seemingly thrives off crazy.
And that’s why they’re still alive for the playoffs.
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