College football scheduling in 2024 can take on many forms from team to team. Some teams load up the non-conference slate with marquee matchups while others take a less entertaining approach, loading up the front of the schedule with lower-tier games to ease into a season.
The Ohio State Buckeyes took the latter approach, coasting through their non-conference schedule with little resistance. That changes Saturday as the Buckeyes take on a resurgent Iowa Hawkeyes team. Can the Buckeyes pass their first real test? Before you bet, check out our Iowa vs. Ohio State prediction.
Iowa vs. Ohio State Betting Preview
All Iowa vs. Ohio State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Oct. 4, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Ohio State -18 - Spread
Ohio State -18 - Moneyline
Ohio State -1050, Iowa +675 - Over/Under
45.5 points - Game Time
Oct. 5, 3:30 p.m. ET - Location
Ohio Stadium | Columbus, OH - Predicted Weather at Kick
68 degrees, sunny, nine mph winds - How To Watch
CBS
The early betting odds released on Sunday made the Buckeyes a -21.5-point favorite. While that might have seemed derogatory to an Iowa team who have been defensively strong in recent seasons, let’s not forget that the Hawkeyes succumbed to defeats of 31, 26, and 35 points in their three biggest games last fall. Clashes don’t come much bigger than against Ohio State.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
The line has dropped to -18 since, right where the CFN Football Playoff Meter spread started the week at. It’s the lowest spread line that the Buckeyes have faced this season so far, and they covered their previous two lowest spread lines (37 points against Western Michigan and 23.5 against Michigan State). Iowa is 2-2 against the spread but has yet to be an underdog in 2024.
Iowa’s Winning Probability
The CFN FPM is a bit kinder to the Hawkeyes than the Vegas line, putting Iowa just under 18-point underdogs. That translates to just an 8.7% win probability. If they were able to pull off an upset, their expected win total for the season would jump nearly one win. The Hawkeyes’ win probabilities for the rest of the season are listed below.
- at Ohio State: 8.7%
- vs. Washington: 64.1%
- at Michigan State: 64.1%
- vs. Northwestern: 88.3%
- vs. Wisconsin: 65.1%
- at UCLA: 75.5%
- at Maryland: 55.6%
- vs. Nebraska: 58.9%
Ohio State’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Ohio State has a 91.3% chance to win Saturday, meaning a win would not have a huge effect on its expected win total for the season. The Buckeyes’ win probabilities for the rest of the season are listed below.
- vs. Iowa: 91.3%
- at Oregon: 47.2%
- vs. Nebraska: 92.3%
- at Penn State: 50.6%
- vs. Purdue: 98.4%
- at Northwestern: 96.8%
- vs. Indiana: 90.8%
- vs. Michigan: 82.8%
Prediction for Iowa vs. Ohio State
Iowa can’t step into a big game without everyone talking about their offense—or lack thereof. The Hawkeyes have shown some improvement this season, but it’s tough to tell if there’s been a true upgrade in talent or playcalling, or if Kaleb Johnson and a soft schedule have just disguised the underlying issues.
While the Buckeyes’ offense gets most of the attention, their defense has quietly become one of the nation’s best. They’re giving up fewer than seven points per game, though it’s come against lesser opponents, and it’s hard to see Iowa’s offense putting up much of a fight on Saturday.
Assuming Ohio State’s defense handles its business, the real question is whether the offense can sustain drives.
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The talent is there, especially at the skill positions. Ohio State will aim to build an early lead and make Cade McNamara play from behind. To do that, expect them to lean on Jeremiah Smith, Quinshon Judkins, and TreVeyon Henderson right out of the gate. Those guys should make an impact early, forcing McNamara into uncomfortable situations.
That rarely ends well for Iowa, and the Buckeyes will likely snag a couple of turnovers to break it open late. Take Ohio State, the points, and the over in a matchup that stays tight before the Buckeyes pull away in the third quarter.
Prediction: Ohio State 38, Iowa 10
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