The Iowa Hawkeyes have had a season full of ups and downs, alternating between games that reinforce the familiar jokes about their struggling offense and those where they deliver surprising scoring outbursts.
Meanwhile, it’s Year 0 for Jonathan Smith and the Michigan State Spartans as they begin a new chapter. So, who will prevail in this classic Big Ten matchup? Here’s our analysis of the spread and total for this Iowa vs. Michigan State prediction.
Iowa vs. Michigan State Betting Preview
All Iowa vs. Michigan State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Oct. 19, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Iowa -4.5 - Spread
Iowa -7 - Moneyline
Iowa -270, Michigan State +220 - Over/Under
39 points - Game Time
Oct. 19, 7:30 p.m. ET - Location
Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, Mich. - Predicted Weather at Kick
62 degrees, clear, 6 mph winds - How To Watch
NBC
The CFN Football Playoff Meter and Vegas spread are in step, as both favor the Hawkeyes by between a field goal and a touchdown. There’s been very little movement on both the spread and total here as they’ve stayed at their opening numbers.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
The total is set at 39.5 points, indicative of the lack of offense in this one. With a spread of six points, the implied final score is close to 23-17 in favor of the Hawkeyes.
Iowa’s Winning Probability
The FPM expects a typical Iowa season, with losses to the best teams on the schedule while the Hawkeyes take care of business against everyone else. Iowa has a 63.1% chance to win the game, per the metric, translating to an implied spread of about 4.5 points.
This is one of three very similarly rated games for the Hawkeyes, who are favored in every remaining game. Here are Iowa’s winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- at Michigan State: 63.1%
- vs. Northwestern: 83.3%
- vs. Wisconsin: 63.1%
- at UCLA: 79.9%
- at Maryland: 63.6%
- vs. Nebraska: 54.3%
Michigan State’s Winning Probability
FPM thinks the back half of the Michigan State schedule is brutal. The Spartans have a 36.9% chance to win the game, per FPM, their third-easiest remaining game on the schedule. They are underdogs in five of the six remaining games.
Here are the Spartans’ winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- vs. Iowa: 36.9%
- at Michigan: 16.5%
- vs. Indiana: 20.4%
- at Illinois: 25.1%
- vs. Purdue: 64.6%
- vs. Rutgers: 46.4%
Prediction for Iowa vs. Michigan State
A Jekyll-and-Hyde Iowa team is showing more promise than in past seasons, with glimpses of offensive potential surfacing occasionally. Even after six games, the Hawkeyes remain an enigma, but I’ll take a stab at decoding them.
In their wins, Iowa’s offense has been averaging a solid 37 points per game, topping the 30-point mark in each victory. In contrast, their losses have seen a sharp decline, with the Hawkeyes managing only 13 points per game and just 264.5 yards per game.
To be fair, those defeats came at the hands of Ohio State and Iowa State, ranked third and 11th in defensive SP+, respectively.
FREE: Sign up for the College Football Network Newsletter to receive unique stories from the world of college football directly to your inbox!
Essentially, this Kaleb Johnson-led offense can produce against weaker defenses, especially with Iowa’s defense remaining as formidable as ever. But the Hawkeyes’ attack is too one-dimensional to threaten elite defenses.
Michigan State, however, doesn’t quite fit that bill. And even if the Spartans boasted a top-tier defense, it likely wouldn’t be enough to change the outcome.
The Spartan offense has struggled mightily with turnovers, ranking among the nation’s worst in ball security. Iowa’s defense is relentless, and as seen in their game against Oregon two weeks ago, it’s probable that Michigan State will have a hard time breaking into double digits.
Iowa is following a familiar pattern this season: faltering in the big games while stifling lesser opponents in low-scoring, grind-it-out affairs. The key difference this time is a more robust rushing attack in 2024.
Take Iowa and the points, and consider betting the under on Michigan State’s team total (DraftKings offers under 14.5 at plus money).
While I’m uncertain about Iowa’s final point tally, I lean toward a late score pushing this game over the total. However, I feel confident that a Michigan State squad that struggled to score against FAU and Boston College will face similar challenges against Iowa.
Prediction: Iowa 30, Michigan State 13
College Football Network has you covered with the latest from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, and every Group of Five conference and FBS Independent program.