Iowa football could be in the midst of a renaissance. Veteran coach Kirk Ferentz, in his 27th season as Iowa’s head coach, had come under fire because of an anaemic offence. Iowa’s defense is always stout, but the Hawkeyes scored just 17.7 and 15.4 points per game in the last two seasons. But offensive coordinator Tim Lester upped Iowa to 27.7 points per game in 2024, and the Hawkeyes are suddenly emboldened.
With a gamble on a veteran FCS quarterback, Iowa could surprise the Big Ten in 2025… or it could slide back. Here’s an early rundown on the season.
Personnel Overview
The big gamble here is at quarterback. FCS star Mark Gronowski has been highly decorated and has thrown for over 10,000, but again, that’s at the FCS level at South Dakota State. Will Gronowski’s big numbers and two national titles at that level translate to the FBS level? Iowa is putting its eggs pretty clearly into that particular basket.
A veteran offensive line should be pretty solid, with three returning starters from 2024. The running game is in capable, if not explosive, hands with sophomore Kamari Moulton, off 473 yards last season as a backup. The biggest offensive question mark is the wide receiver spot, where even a mediocre Iowa passing game still lost two of its top three pass catchers. Junior Jacob Gill (35 catches, 411 yards, 2 TDs) is the best-known returnee.
Defensively, Iowa should be stout as always. Iowa had 29 sacks a season ago and returns three defensive line starters. Ethan Hurkett is probably the best of them. The secondary is experienced and solid as well, with DeShaun Lee as an experienced and talented corner. The linebacker corps has plenty of new faces, and that could be the weak link here, but Iowa seems to always coach up its young talent well on defense.
Special teams should be on safe ground, with kicker Drew Stevens (20-23 last year on field goals) one of the best in the Big Ten. Steven hit a 54-yard kick last season. Punter Rhys Dakin (44.1 yards per punt) did a very good job last season as a freshman. Kaden Wetjen is a massive weapon in the return game, with both a punt return and a kickoff return touchdown last year.
Schedule Overview
The annual battle with Iowa State in Week 2 (on the road) will be a challenging non-conference battle for the Hawkeyes. The other two non-league games (Albany, UMass) won’t be challenging.
Iowa was lucky enough to get five conference home games and opposed to four road games. They also managed to avoid Ohio State this season. While the Hawkeyes will face the Big Ten’s two other top teams, they’ll do so at home, with Penn State coming in on October 18th and Oregon visiting after both teams have a bye week for a Nov. 8 game.
Road trips in the league are Rutgers, Wisconsin, USC and Nebraska. It’s a fairly challenging slate, but it doesn’t exactly present any unwinnable games.
Win-Loss Prediction
In the easy win pile, stack the two “other” non-conference games and then league games at Rutgers, at home against Michigan State, and at Wisconsin and at home against Minnesota. That’s six wins as a floor-level expectation.
In terms of losses, the road game at Iowa State looks brutal, and the home battles with Penn State and Oregon should start out as expected losses, although Iowa’s defense will give it a puncher’s chance in literally any game.
That leaves three games that define the season’s slope between six and nine regular-season wins. A homecoming game with Indiana is probably the easiest of the three. Road trips to USC and Nebraska late in the season also fit into this group. The key thing will be what shape those programs are in themselves come November. At USC, Lincoln Riley’s job could be in jeopardy by then, for instance.
Anything from 6-6 to 9-3 wouldn’t be too surprising. As things stand before the first game, an 8-4 mark is the likely landing spot, with a win over Indiana and one of the terrible two road trips to USC or Nebraska.
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