The Indiana Hoosiers are going to the College Football Playoff. Tuesday night’s penultimate rankings — and the explanation behind them — lock Curt Cignett’s team into the 12-team postseason tournament. The biggest question facing the Big Ten team now is who they’ll meet in the first round later this month.
Our Indiana playoff predictions examine the potential scenarios.
College Football Playoff Predictions: Projecting Indiana’s Opponents
Below, we’ve listed all the potential outcomes for Indiana. Given the latest rankings, these are the teams the Hoosiers would play based on the results in the SEC Championship Game and Big Ten Championship Game.
Hoosiers to Play Georgia In Latest College Football Playoff Rankings
The penultimate College Football Playoff rankings were released on Tuesday night and provide a potential pathway for the Hoosiers postseason. Currently, Indiana ranks as the ninth-best team in the eyes of the committee, making them the 10th seed for the 12-team tournament when the automatic bids for the top five conference champions are loaded into the playoff bracket.
That seeding would give the Hoosiers a road game against the seventh-seeded team in the country. Based on the latest rankings, the Indiana playoff predictions would see Cignetti’s team travel to Athens to take on the Georgia Bulldogs in the first round.
However, that scenario is far from a lock, as the Bulldogs take on the Texas Longhorns in the SEC Championship Game.
What If Georgia Wins the SEC and Penn State Loses the Big Ten?
With the current bracket projected on assumptions made about championship winners, this is the biggest single influence on the Indiana playoff predictions. If Georgia beats Texas in the SEC Championship Game, the Bulldogs will vault from the seventh seed to the second seed.
The question is, how far will the committee then drop the Longhorns down the field, and how will that impact who the Hoosiers face? Given the Ohio State Buckeyes dropped just three spots for a loss to an unranked Michigan Wolverines team, let’s assume Texas ends up no lower than the fifth seed if it’s a close game.
If the Penn State Nittany Lions lose the Big Ten Championship Game as expected, they also shouldn’t drop too far — if at all. They’re the underdog, so anything other than a substantial blowout to the number-one-ranked team in the country should see them sealed into the spot beneath Texas.
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As a result, Indiana would likely face the seventh-seed Notre Dame Fighting Irish in South Bend. However, a shellacking from the Oregon Ducks could see the Nittany Lions slump to the seventh, and therefore a trip to Beaver Stadium.
What If Texas Wins the SEC and Penn State Loses the Big Ten?
This scenario shouldn’t impact the Indiana playoff predictions much at all unless the games are complete blowouts. With Texas and Oregon currently the one and two seeds (and ranked teams) there is a clear expectation that those two programs will win on Saturday.
The losers shouldn’t suffer too much, keeping Georgia as the seventh seed and the likely opponent for the Hoosiers.
What If Texas Wins the SEC and Oregon Loses the Big Ten?
As with all these Indiana playoff predictions, the impact of this scenario relies on the nature of the defeat. Oregon losing to Penn State would presumably just see the Ducks slide to the fifth seed, with the Nittany Lions vaulting to the number two seed. Texas is expected to beat Georgia, and unless they hammer the Bulldogs, the loser is unlikely to drop too far.
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Given the College Football Playoff Selection Committee’s stance on head-to-head results, the floor for Georgia, if they do drop, may well be the eighth seed, settling just above Tennessee, which they beat handily earlier in the year. If that were to happen, Indiana would meet Ohio State in a rematch of their 15-38 regular season defeat to the Buckeyes.
What If Georgia Wins the SEC and Oregon Loses the Big Ten?
If this scenario were to play out, it would cause chaos atop the rankings, but ultimately, it wouldn’t greatly impact the Hoosiers. Penn State would likely become the number one seed, Georgia would file in as the number two seed, and Oregon and Texas would be the fifth and sixth seed.
That would push Notre Dame back into the seventh spot, a matchup discussed already.
There is a further complicating factor at play for these Indiana playoff predictions. The above scenarios have all assumed that the SMU Mustangs retain the third seed as the ACC champions.
However, Rhett Lashlee’s team currently sits one place above the Hoosiers in the rankings, and a close defeat to the Clemson Tigers might force the Hoosiers down a spot in the final rankings.
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