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    Indiana vs. Michigan State Prediction: Kurtis Rourke’s Injury Update Keeps Hoosiers Perfect Season Alive

    Can the Spartans pull off an upset in the battle for the Old Brass Spittoon? Our Indiana vs. Michigan State preview dives into this classic Big Ten clash.

    Since 1950, the Indiana Hoosiers and Michigan State Spartans have faced off in the Battle for the Old Brass Spittoon, a rivalry with only a few seasons missed over the years. The 2024 matchup promises high stakes, impacting conference standings and potential playoff scenarios for one of these historic rivals.

    Our Indiana vs. Michigan State preview dives into all the essential details, from the latest betting odds to each team’s outlook as they tackle the remainder of the 2024 college football season.

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    Indiana vs. Michigan State Betting Preview

    All Indiana vs. Michigan State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Nov. 2, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.

    • CFN FPM Spread
      Indiana -12
    • Spread
      Indiana -7.5
    • Moneyline
      Indiana -305, Michigan State +245
    • Over/Under
      53.5 points
    • Game time
      3:30 p.m. ET
    • Location
      Spartan Stadium | East Lansing, MI
    • Predicted Weather at Kick
      57 degrees, partly sunny, 7 mph winds
    • How to Watch
      Peacock

    As rivalries go, the Battle for the Old Spittoon has historically been a one-sided affair. The Spartans hold a 50-18-2 head-to-head advantage, the largest victory, the longest win streak, and won the last encounter between the two teams. Yet, this Hoosiers team is very different to most of the ones that have come before, and is an understandable favorite in Week 10.

    MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor

    You could argue that they’re being undersold by the oddsmakers right now, with a five-point difference between the DraftKings and CFN FPM spread. The one-score line is likely a reflection of ongoing uncertainty around quarterback Kurtis Rourke. Nonetheless, Indiana has covered the spread for seven straight games, covering by a nation-leading average 15.7 points.

    Indiana’s Winning Probability

    According to the CFN FPM, Indiana has an 81.6% chance of victory on Saturday afternoon. Although Michigan State has historically had the better of this rivalry, the Hoosiers are a cut above the Spartans this season and should win comfortably.

    Here are the remaining win probabilities for Indiana in the 2024 college football campaign:

    • at Michigan State: 81.6%
    • vs. Michigan: 78.1%
    • at Ohio State: 29.7%
    • vs. Purdue: 95.2%

    If those win probabilities were to hold true, the Hoosiers would end the year with an 11-1 record containing just one conference loss. Even with defeat to the Ohio State Buckeyes, as projected here, there is a possibility that Indiana plays in the Big Ten Championship Game. The playoffs are very much in reach.

    Michigan State’s Winning Probability

    Conversely, Michigan State has just an 18.4% chance of winning the Battle for the Old Brass Spittoon, according to the CFN FPM. While everything about our Indiana vs. Michigan State prediction suggestions a win for the Hoosiers, our metric has underestimated the Spartans once already this year (vs. Iowa).

    Here are the remaining win probabilities for Michigan State in the 2024 college football campaign:

    • vs. Indiana: 18.4%
    • at Illinois: 25.4%
    • vs. Purdue: 75.1%
    • vs. Rutgers: 55.6%

    Here those win probabilities were to hold true, the Spartans would end the year with a 6-6 record, earning bowl eligibility in the first year under Jonathan Smith. The program hasn’t been to a bowl game since 2022.

    Prediction for Indiana vs. Michigan State

    In just one season, Curt Cignetti has transformed Indiana from one of the nation’s bottom-dwellers into a powerhouse with College Football Playoff hopes. This Saturday, they head to East Lansing, aiming to extend their unbeaten streak to nine games and regain ground in the Battle for the Old Brass Spittoon, a rivalry where they’ve trailed since 1953.

    They’ll face a Michigan State team that launched with a promising 3-0 start under new head coach Smith but has since struggled, securing just one win, suggesting their rebuild may take longer than anticipated.

    However, just two weeks ago, the Spartans pulled off a victory against a tough Iowa team. Could they notch another upset in Week 10? Who holds the edge, and where will the crucial matchups unfold?

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    Indiana’s narrow one-score favorite status could stem from various factors, though each raises questions. If home-field advantage plays a role in the slim spread, it’s worth noting that the Hoosiers have won their last two games in East Lansing, including a commanding 24-0 shutout during the chaotic 2020 season.

    Perhaps Michigan State’s defense, ranked 35th nationally in points allowed, is also a factor. This season, they’ve limited opponents to just 21.2 points per game. Yet, that number needs context—boosted by a shutout of FCS Prairie View A&M, a low-scoring game against Florida Atlantic, and only 20 points allowed to Iowa.

    Although they have playmakers, the defense’s numbers can be misleading.

    The biggest argument for Michigan State keeping it close is the injury status of Indiana’s star quarterback, Rourke, who was outstanding before missing the last two games. But that narrative overlooks Indiana’s potent ground game, featuring Justice Ellison, Ty Son Lawton, Elijah Green, and backup QB Tayven Jackson.

    Jackson showcased his leadership in Indiana’s win over Washington, while a defense led by CFN All-American D’Angelo Ponds, Aiden Fisher, and Mikail Kamara has been one of the stingiest in the country.

    Ultimately, Michigan State likely can’t match the Hoosiers on either side of the ball, pointing toward another decisive Indiana victory.

    Prediction: Indiana 33, Michigan State 14

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