A big-time top-25 matchup is on the horizon as Illinois and Penn State take is a big-time top-20 matchup in the Big Ten. The Fighting Illini moved to No. 19 in the country following a hard-fought overtime road win over then-nationally ranked Nebraska last Friday night.
Penn State has jumped into the top 10 following a convincing home beatdown of Kent State. Now, the Nittany Lions are preparing for their 2024 Big Ten opener against Illinois. How will they fare? Our Illinois vs. Penn State prediction holds the answers.
Illinois vs. Penn State Betting Preview
All Illinois vs. Penn State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Thursday, Sept. 26.
- Spread
Penn State -18 - Moneyline
Illinois +650, Penn State -1000 - Over/Under
47.5 points - Game Time
7:30 p.m. ET - Location
Beaver Stadium | University Park, Pa. - Predicted Weather at Kick
66 degrees, partly cloudy - How To Watch
NBC
The spread has been up and down, a perfect metaphor for the excitement of the Big Ten. It opened at -17.5, momentarily jumped to -18 in Penn State’s favor, and returned to its original opening number before settling midweek at -18 once more.
The total has been nearly the same, after opening at 48.5, dropping to 47.5, before bouncing back for a half day at 48 and settling back down.
Illinois comes in 3-1 against the spread (ATS), as their only ATS loss was by half a point, barely failing to cover 21.5 against Central Michigan. Penn State comes in 2-1 ATS as their lone loss against the spread was a surprisingly close seven-point victory over Bowling Green as 34.5-point favorites.
Prediction for Illinois vs. Penn State
This line caught me off guard. I expected it to fall somewhere in the 10.5-12 range. Illinois just proved they can handle a tough road atmosphere and play solid football on both sides of the ball. While Penn State is a stronger team than Nebraska, Illinois showed what they’re capable of last Friday night.
For Illinois, it starts with Altmyer. He’s been a sharp decision-maker, delivering big throws and using his mobility to keep drives alive. His accuracy has been impressive, consistently putting the ball where only his receivers can make plays.
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On the other side, I’ve been high on Allar since before his freshman season. He’s got the ideal size and arm strength for a pro-style quarterback, with a bit of mobility to boot. However, his challenges have been accuracy and touch, which he’s still working on. He hasn’t faced a defense quite like Illinois’s yet in 2024, so it’ll be interesting to see how he handles the pressure on Saturday.
I expect the Nittany Lions to pull off the win under the lights, but I anticipate a much closer battle than expected. Illinois will make a statement, showing the rest of the Big Ten they’re a real challenge in 2024.
Prediction: Penn State 24, Illinois 14
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