The Oregon Ducks have soared to the top of the AP Poll, but all eyes this Saturday are on the Illinois Fighting Illini, who have a genuine shot at the College Football Playoff, bolstered by a favorable November schedule.
A surprise win for Bret Bielema’s squad could propel them into the postseason spotlight. Will the Ducks hold their ground at home, or are the Illini poised to take advantage of this golden opportunity? Join us as we break down our Illinois vs. Oregon prediction and reveal where our support lies.
Illinois vs. Oregon Betting Preview
All Illinois vs. Oregon odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Oct. 26, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Oregon -16 - Spread
Oregon -22 - Moneyline
Oregon -1800, Illinois +1000 - Over/Under
54.5 points - Game Time
3:30 p.m. ET - Location
Autzen Stadium | Eugene, OR - Predicted Weather at Kick
62 degrees, rainy, 7 mph winds - How To Watch
CBS
College football conference realignment brings together two teams that haven’t met in decades, as Illinois faces Oregon for the first time since 1995. Back then, the Ducks took two straight wins in the mid-90s, following a 1970 victory by the Fighting Illini. Despite the considerable spread, it’s worth noting that all three previous matchups were decided by just one score.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Yet, with Oregon’s strength becoming evident, expecting a close game may be overly optimistic. While the Ducks are only 3-4 against the spread this season, they boast an average winning margin of 18 points. Can the Bielema boys keep it within two scores? Illinois is 5-1-1 against the spread this season, offering a glimmer of hope for a tighter contest than Vegas anticipates.
Illinois’ Winning Probability
According to CFN FPM, Illinois has just an 11% chance of emerging victorious when they travel to Eugene on Saturday. It’s comfortably the toughest test of their season so far — and to come.
- at Oregon: 11.0%
- vs. Minnesota: 73.4%
- vs. Michigan State: 78.1%
- at Rutgers: 64.6%
- at Northwestern: 81.6%
Oregon’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Oregon has an 89% chance of overcoming the Fighting Illini in front of their home crowd. After defeating the Ohio State Buckeyes (and avoiding the Penn State Nittany Lions), there seems to be little standing in the way of an undefeated regular season and appearance in the Big Ten Championship Game.
- vs. Illinois: 89.0%
- at Michigan: 83.0%
- vs. Maryland: 95.9%
- at Wisconsin: 85.9%
- vs. Washington: 94.5%
Prediction for Illinois vs. Oregon
Check out the winning probabilities for Illinois.
A victory on Saturday could put the Illini in prime position to close the season 11-1, with a chance to compete in the Big Ten Championship and even secure a College Football Playoff spot. It’s a pivotal game—one of the biggest in the program’s history.
On paper, the Ducks have a clear talent advantage. Although Oregon hasn’t consistently unleashed its offensive firepower, their passing game has shown flashes of brilliance.
Illinois, however, is adept at turning matchups into hard-fought battles. Oregon’s quarterback Dillon Gabriel is prone to the occasional error, and Illinois has the defensive prowess to exploit any slip-ups.
Bret Bielema has a track record of throwing elite teams off their rhythm, forcing them into uncomfortable situations. But his offense often lacks the punch to fully capitalize, and this game may follow a similar pattern.
Even if Illinois outmaneuvers Oregon for stretches, their offense could struggle to truly pressure the Ducks. I lean toward the under in this game, as I expect Illinois’s solid red-zone defense to keep Oregon’s scoring in check.
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Oregon has occasionally struggled to finish drives this season, though it hasn’t hurt them significantly yet.
With their overall firepower, Oregon should have enough to stave off an upset. But don’t expect it to be easy—a close contest is likely before the Ducks pull away in the late stages.
While I doubt this game will hit the over, Illinois stands a strong chance to cover the spread, and an outright upset isn’t entirely off the table.
Prediction: Oregon 27, Illinois 13
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