Houston, we have a problem, and the problem is scoring points.
First-year head coach Willie Fritz is no stranger to early tenure hiccups, but the Houston Cougars’ offense is abysmal. Meanwhile, the TCU Horned Frogs have no trouble scoring but haven’t exactly been successful in keeping their opponents off the board.
What happens when the Big 12’s worst defense faces its worst offense? Take a look at our Houston vs. TCU prediction and find out.
Houston vs. TCU Betting Preview
All Houston vs. TCU odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Oct. 4, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
TCU -10.5 - Spread
TCU -16.5 - Moneyline
TCU -700, Houston +500 - Over/Under
51 points - Game Time
Oct. 4, 7:30 p.m. ET - Location
Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, Texas - Predicted Weather at Kick
85 degrees, sunny, 8 mph winds - How To Watch
ESPN
College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter and Vegas vary nearly a whole touchdown on this one, as both have the Horned Frogs as favorites but differ on the extent. With a spread of 16.5 points and a total of 49.5, Vegas hates the Houston offense and implies a final score close to 33-17 in favor of the Horned Frogs.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
The spread has dropped from 17.5 to 16.5, while the total has remained largely unchanged, though most of the bets have been on the over.
Houston’s Winning Probability
The Football Playoff Meter thinks a bit more of the Cougars in this one than the oddsmakers do.
FPM has Houston as a nine-point underdog, giving it a win probability of 20.7%. Unfortunately for the Cougars, that represents the third-highest win probability of any game remaining on the schedule, as Houston is an underdog in every remaining game, according to the metric.
The Cougars’ win probabilities for the rest of the season are listed below.
- at TCU: 20.7%
- at Kansas: 21.9%
- vs. Utah: 16.7%
- vs. Kansas State: 18.4%
- at Arizona: 8.7%
- vs. Baylor: 37.4%
- at BYU: 9.6%
TCU’s Winning Probability
Conversely, TCU has a 79.3% chance to win on Saturday. A win is vital to the success of their season because the Horned Frogs don’t have a game left on the schedule as easy as Saturday’s.
TCU is favored in four of its remaining seven games, but three of those are just barely better than a coin toss. The Horned Frogs’ win probabilities for the rest of the season are listed below.
- vs. Houston: 79.3%
- at Utah: 25.1%
- vs. Texas Tech: 52.5%
- at Baylor: 50.4%
- vs. Oklahoma State: 48.2%
- vs. Arizona: 35.4%
- at Cincinnati: 50.8%
Prediction for Houston vs. TCU
What happens when a stoppable force meets, well, a moveable object?
We’re about to find out on Friday, as it’s difficult to overstate how dreadful Houston’s offense and TCU’s defense have been.
Houston has been held scoreless in back-to-back games and managed 12 or fewer points in four of five contests, with only a win over a struggling 1-4 Rice team keeping the numbers from being historically awful. The Cougars are averaging just 10.8 points per game and rank 118th in total yardage.
TCU’s defense hasn’t been much better. The Horned Frogs rank 123rd in points allowed per game and 126th in third-down conversions allowed. To be fair, SMU’s defense and special teams scored three times, and another fumble return to the one-yard line skewed some of the stats—but TCU’s defensive numbers are also propped up by a shutout against an FCS team.
Either way, when Houston’s offense takes the field, expect sloppy football.
On the other side, though, are two units performing well despite the lack of complementary play. Houston’s defense is 21st in total yardage allowed, while TCU’s offense is 15th in yardage gained.
Both teams are led by solid coaches. Fritz, in particular, tends to struggle in his first year at new programs. He focuses more on long-term progress than immediate wins. As such, he’ll likely aim to slow the game down, making it difficult for TCU to rely on its quick-strike offense. He’ll try to grind things out, making this a messy affair.
TCU still has too much offensive firepower to be completely shut down, but the defense is vulnerable enough for Houston to avoid a third straight goose egg.
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As an added wrinkle, this game also features two of the worst special teams units in college football, with TCU ranked 122nd in special teams SP+ and Houston dead last. Expect some ugly moments.
I’m siding more with the FPM than the oddsmakers here. TCU will pull out a win, but it’ll be neither pretty nor easy. Expect the Horned Frogs to turn the ball over a few times, yet also expect the TCU defense to appear competent against this Houston offense.
TCU wins — but Houston covers.
Prediction: TCU 23, Houston 14
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