On Friday night, the Arizona Wildcats and Houston Cougars clash under the lights at Arizona Stadium, each team searching for a late-season boost to carry momentum into next year.
Can Arizona defend its home turf, or will Houston build off last week’s victory to spark a winning streak? Our Houston vs. Arizona prediction breaks down this exciting Friday night Big 12 matchup.
Houston vs. Arizona Betting Preview
All Houston vs. Arizona odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Nov. 15, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Arizona -5 - Spread
Arizona -1 - Moneyline
Arizona -118, Houston -102 - Over/Under
47 points - Game time
10:15 p.m. ET - Location
Arizona Stadium | Tucson, AZ - Predicted Weather at Kick
61 degrees, mostly cloudy, 6 mph winds - How To Watch
FS1
The Wildcats originally opened as -3.5 point favorites, but that number has fallen to -1 and could very well continue to fall before kickoff on Friday night. The total opened at 42.5 and has jumped all the way to 47.
The moneyline has mimicked the spread as Arizona opened as a -155 favorite and has seen that number drop to -118.
Houston’s Winning Probability
According to CFN’s Football Power Meter, Houston has a 35.9% chance of defeating Arizona on Saturday.
If the win probabilities hold, Houston is tabbed to drop its final three contests of 2024, bringing the Cougars to 4-8 on the year. The reality is that they have been one of the most volatile and complex squads in the country to predict this season.
In a five-game stretch this season, Houston nearly beat Oklahoma on the road. Then, they were blown out at Cincinnati 34-0 and then went on the road to beat TCU 30-19.
More recently, they were dominated at Kansas and then picked up back-to-back wins over Utah and Kansas State.
- at Arizona: 35.9%
- vs. Baylor: 39.4%
- at BYU: 8.9%
Arizona’s Winning Probability
According to the FPM, Arizona has a 64.1% chance of defeating Houston on Friday night.
If the win probabilities hold, Arizona is slated to finish 4-8, dropping its final two contests of 2024. This would be the Wildcats’ worst finish since the 2021 season and a massive dropoff from last year’s 10-win campaign under Jedd Fisch, culminating in an Alamo Bowl victory.
- vs. Houston: 64.1%
- vs. TCU: 31.2%
- at Arizona State: 45.7%
Prediction for Houston vs. Arizona
Arizona enters Friday’s matchup at 3-6, still reeling from a lopsided 56-12 loss to UCF—a game where their defense was outmatched and the offense struggled to gain any momentum. Meanwhile, the Cougars arrive in Tucson with renewed energy after a 24-19 victory over Kansas State, sparking a flicker of hope in what has otherwise been a shaky 4-5 season.
Historically, these two Big 12 programs have only squared off three times, with Arizona holding a narrow 2-1 advantage. However, history matters little under the bright Friday night lights of November, where it’s all about how each team rises to the occasion.
Both squads have been among the most unpredictable in this chaotic Big 12 season, making this matchup both compelling and difficult to predict.
As Houston hits the road, they bring a respectable record against the spread, covering in five of nine games. Arizona, on the other hand, has struggled to find consistency, managing just one win against the spread all season.
The Wildcats rely heavily on their passing attack, led by quarterback Noah Fifita, who has thrown for 2,324 yards, 13 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. However, Arizona’s defense has been a glaring weakness, giving up over 31 points per game—an issue that was on full display against UCF when they surrendered 406 total yards.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Houston quarterback Zeon Chriss has shown flashes of efficiency, completing all 11 of his passes against Kansas State for 103 yards and a touchdown while adding 75 rushing yards and another score. Despite their offensive struggles—they rank third-worst in the FBS, averaging just 15.2 points per game—the Cougars’ defense has been a steadying presence, allowing only 22 points per game.
Arizona’s defensive issues extend to both the run and the pass, as they’ve allowed an average of 173 rushing yards and 223 passing yards per game. This matchup could provide a golden opportunity for Houston’s offense to gain some traction against a porous Wildcats defense.
While Arizona averages 22.1 points per game, their inability to control the tempo or stay competitive has plagued them all season, contributing to their poor performance against the spread.
For Houston, this game presents a chance to exploit Arizona’s weaknesses, even on the road. With the spread leaning in the Cougars’ favor and the Wildcats’ ongoing struggles, this might be the moment Houston finds its offensive rhythm.
Prediction: Houston 24, Arizona 20
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