The SEC Championship Game sets the stage for an epic rematch as the Texas Longhorns and Georgia Bulldogs collide at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, both with their sights set on the College Football Playoff National Championship.
Who takes the crown? Our Georgia vs. Texas prediction dives into the latest odds, win probabilities, and projects the winner of this high-stakes showdown.
Georgia vs. Texas Betting Preview
All Georgia vs. Texas odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Dec. 7, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Texas -2 - Spread
Texas -3 - Moneyline
Texas -148, Georgia +124 - Over/Under
50.5 points - Game Time
4:00 p.m. ET - Location
Mercedes-Benz Stadium | Atlanta, GA - Predicted Weather at Kick
Dome - How To Watch
ABC
Despite a hail of beer bottles and the objections of thousands of Longhorns fans, Georgia went into Austin and came away with the victory when the two teams met earlier in the 2024 college football season. Saturday gives Texas a chance for revenge while they can extend their 4-2 head-to-head advantage over their new SEC foe with a win that they’re favored to achieve.
MORE: 2024 College Football Power Rankings
Not only is Texas favored to win, but the odds keep stacking up in their favor as the game gets nearer. The spread line started at less than a field goal, but after sliding out to -2.5, the Longhorns are now a three-point favorite, according to the latest DraftKings odds. Texas covers the spread by an average of 2.2 points, and Georgia is 3-9 ATS this year. Will precedent hold on Saturday?
Georgia’s Win Probability
Despite beating the Longhorns when the teams met in the 2024 college football regular season, Georgia enters the SEC Championship Game with a 46.6% chance of emerging victorious, according to the College Football Network Football Playoff Meter.
- vs. Texas: 46.6%
Texas’ Win Probability
Conversely, our metric gives Texas a 53.4% chance of winning the SEC title in their inaugural season in the conference. With no home-field advantage factored into the neutral site game, the Longhorns are favored based on the matchup alone.
- vs. Georgia: 53.4%
Prediction for Georgia vs. Texas
In their October 19 clash, Georgia asserted its dominance over Texas with a 30-15 victory at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium. A suffocating defensive performance staked the Bulldogs to a 23-0 halftime lead, holding Texas to just 39 total yards in the first half. The Longhorns, scrambling for answers, briefly turned to Arch Manning in relief of Quinn Ewers, but Georgia’s control of the game was absolute.
Now, the stakes couldn’t be higher. Texas has regrouped, fueled by the chance for redemption and the possibility of earning the No. 1 College Football Playoff seed—should Oregon falter in the Big Ten Championship Game.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
A win would guarantee at least the No. 2 seed for Texas, while Georgia enters the SEC Championship Game with questions swirling. The Bulldogs are desperate to avoid a third title game loss in four years and reclaim their big-game edge.
Carson Beck has been sensational of late, throwing 11 touchdowns to just one interception in his last four games. However, the Bulldogs’ rushing attack could be in jeopardy if Trevor Etienne remains sidelined. Meanwhile, Texas’ defense—led by a surging Anthony Hill Jr.—has been almost impenetrable, allowing just 2.1 yards per carry over its last three games.
On the other side of the ball, Texas’ Quintrevion Wisner is hitting his stride. The emerging lead back enters the game with consecutive 150-yard performances, ready to test Georgia’s defensive front.
The quarterback matchup will be pivotal. Ewers, who struggled mightily in the first meeting, must take more aggressive shots downfield to keep the Bulldogs honest. But Georgia’s Jalon Walker, who recorded three sacks in the October game, could once again wreak havoc if the Longhorns’ offensive line falters.
Under the bright lights of Atlanta, this is a test of growth and resilience. Can Texas’ evolution since October carry them past Georgia? Or will Kirby Smart’s Bulldogs, with a CFP berth on the line, rise to the occasion when it matters most?
Texas might feel like the trendy pick here, but I believe in Smart’s ability to have the Dawgs ready for the moment.
Prediction: Georgia 27, Texas 24
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