Georgia State vs. UConn Prediction: Nick Evers to Light Up Field for Huskies?

    Our Georgia State vs. UConn prediction examines whether the Huskies can secure bowl eligibility for only the second time in the past decade.

    The UConn Huskies are just one win away from bowl eligibility, and it’s only November 1.

    Now standing at 5-3, the Huskies could easily be in an even better position, having come up just short in two close ACC matchups. But with several winnable games still ahead, they’ll look to start strong with a Friday night home game against the Georgia State Panthers.

    Georgia State has had some bright moments—like a victory over Vanderbilt—but it’s clear that head coach Dell McGee’s late spring arrival has impacted their season. Riding a four-game losing streak, the Panthers are eager for a turnaround. This Georgia State vs. UConn prediction will dive into whether the Panthers have a shot at pulling off the upset.

    CFN CFB Playoff Predictor
    College Football Network’s College Football Playoff Predictor is a tool that allows you to play out various weekly scenarios to see how the CFP picture changes with each scenario.

    Georgia State vs. UConn Betting Preview

    All Georgia State vs. UConn odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Nov. 1, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.

    • CFN FPM Spread
      UConn -3.5
    • Spread
      UConn -7.5
    • Moneyline
      UConn -285, Georgia State +230
    • Over/Under
      48 points
    • Game Time
      Nov. 1, 7 ET
    • Location
      Pratt & Whitney Stadium | East Hartford, Conn.
    • Predicted Weather at Kick
      56 degrees, clear, 10 mph winds
    • How To Watch
      CBSSN

    While it’s remarkable to many that UConn is in line to go bowling for just the second time in 10 seasons, it’s also not all that surprising given the relatively easy schedule and the way the Huskies have been playing. What you see from Georgia State, on the other hand, is a true Year 0 situation, as the Panthers hired McGee very late in the spring and put a Band-Aid on its roster.

    MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor

    The line is indicative of that, as the Huskies are 7.5-point home favorites. A 48.5-point total means that Vegas expects a game close to 28-21 in favor of UConn.

    Georgia State’s Winning Probability

    CFN’s FPM is a bit higher on the Panthers in this one than Vegas is. Georgia State is a slightly smaller underdog at 3.5 points, a win probability of 39.4% per the metric. The metric makes the Panthers underdogs in every remaining game, but it places three of the five as very winnable.

    • at UConn: 39.4%
    • at James Madison: 12.2%
    • vs. Arkansas State: 48.8%
    • at Texas State: 14.1%
    • vs. Coastal Carolina: 48.2%

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    UConn’s Winning Probability

    Conversely, CFN’s FPM gives UConn a 60.6% chance to win and has the Huskies as slight favorites in three of their remaining four games. While bowl eligibility is likely, the Huskies are likely aiming for a seven- or eight-win season

    • vs. Georgia State: 60.6%
    • at UAB: 62.6%
    • at Syracuse: 16.7%
    • at UMass: 52.8%

    Prediction for Georgia State vs. UConn

    UConn’s defense is top-notch. Sure, some of the stats may be padded by weaker offenses, but you don’t just “luck into” being the best third-down defense in the country.

    Opponents are finding it tough to throw successfully against the Huskies, allowing UConn to drop into zone on long third downs and keep everything in front of them.

    Georgia State’s offense, on the other hand, has struggled in terms of efficiency. The Panthers rank 103rd on third-down conversions and dead last at 133rd on fourth-downs. They pass frequently but with limited success, sitting at just 97th in yards per attempt.

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    This matchup poses a real challenge for the Georgia State offense. UConn’s defense thrives on a heavy dose of zone, forcing quarterbacks to make smart reads and throw with precision. The Huskies might not generate heavy pressure or force a lot of turnovers, but they do force a lot of punts.

    That gives the offense room to be patient, picking spots while the defense holds strong. It’s not the flashiest style, but it’s effective.

    Expect UConn to frustrate the Panthers, pushing Georgia State into uncomfortable, aggressive play. I like the Huskies in another low-scoring grind, and I also like them to cover in one of my favorite plays this week. I got them at -6.5, but there’s still value at -7.5.

    Prediction: UConn 26, Georgia State 14

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