The Georgia Bulldogs handled their business so early in the season that they sat back and cruised past UMass in Week 13 while the rest of the SEC dismantled one another. When the results came to fruition and the dust settled, it was apparent: Georgia was in no matter what.
Here’s how Georgia is guaranteed a spot in the SEC Championship Game.
Georgia’s SEC Championship Chances
Well, technically, Georgia’s SEC Championship Game chances are now at 100%. They’re in off technicalities based around the tiebreaking scenarios and now will face the winner of the Texas vs. Texas A&M game in Week 14.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Using CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor, the Bulldogs now have the top probability to win the SEC as well. Georgia’s current chances to win the SEC Championship are at 49.90%, higher than Texas or A&M, nearly more than the two Texas schools combined.
How Did Georgia Clinch the SEC Championship Game?
The Bulldogs clinched their berth in the SEC Championship Game based on tiebreakers. At worst, Georgia will face off against Texas as the second-place seed, if the Longhorns beat Texas A&M.
At best, the Bulldogs will go into the SEC Championship Game as the second-place seed against Texas A&M, if the Aggies can defeat the Longhorns in Week 14.
Here’s how the tiebreakers are set up:
- Head-to-head
- Record against all common SEC opponents
- Record against highest-placed common SEC opponents
- Cumulative SEC winning percentage of all SEC opponents
Essentially, the head-to-head is thrown out between Texas A&M and Georgia as the two didn’t play. With Tennessee still technically in the mix as a two-loss team, if the Vols win against Vanderbilt, the tiebreaking scenarios automatically go to the fourth scenario due to lack of common opponents and head-to-head action.
At that point, we’d get to the cumulative SEC winning percentage of all SEC opponents.
Texas:
Mississippi State (0-7)
Oklahoma (2-5)
Georgia (6-2)
Vanderbilt (3-4)
Florida (4-4)
Arkansas (3-4)
Kentucky (1-7)
Texas A&M (5-2)
SEC Opponent Conference Record: 24-33 (42.1%)
A&M:
Florida (4-4)
Arkansas (3-4)
Missouri (4-3)
Mississippi State (0-7)
LSU (4-3)
South Carolina (5-3)
Auburn (2-5)
Texas (6-1)
SEC Opponent Conference Record: 28-30 (48.3%)
Georgia:
Kentucky (1-7)
Alabama (4-3)
Auburn (2-5)
Mississippi State (0-7)
Texas (6-1)
Florida (4-4)
Ole Miss (4-3)
Tennessee (5-2)
SEC Opponent Conference Record: 26-32 (44.8%)
Tennessee:
Oklahoma (2-5)
Arkansas (3-4)
Florida (4-4)
Alabama (4-3)
Kentucky (1-7)
Mississippi State (0-7)
Georgia (6-2)
Vanderbilt (3-4)
SEC Opponent Conference Record: 23-36 (38.9%)
As it stands following Week 13, Texas A&M would win tiebreaker No. 4 and Georgia, Texas, and Tennessee or just Georgia and Texas would move to the top of the tiebreaker. Georgia would win the head-to-head tiebreaker against Texas singularly, or Texas and Tennessee combined since the Bulldogs defeated both programs earlier this year.
It’s important to note that yes, Texas A&M has a better opponent SEC winning percentage, but there is no scenario that A&M and Georgia are tied with only one spot open for the SEC Championship. Therefore, A&M would ‘win’ the tiebreaker over Georgia, but there would still be a second-place finish open, and Georgia owns the singular tiebreakers against Texas and Tennessee easily.
No matter how it’s sliced, the Bulldogs are in the SEC Championship Game because of their work done this year (and Ole Miss and Alabama losing in Week 13).
Latest Georgia Playoff Probability Following Week 13
With their place secure, the Bulldogs actually saw their playoff probability dwindle a bit after Week 13. They opened the weekend with a 41.77% chance to make the playoffs, but now with a potential playoff-elimination game against Texas or Texas A&M, the Bulldogs may have to win the SEC to guarantee their spot in the playoffs.
A three-loss SEC runner-up may break the mold, especially given the recent losses to Ole Miss and Alabama in conference and Colorado and BYU out of conference shaping things up for a nice little mess around the at-large teams.
UGA should most likely be in, but there is the chance with a loss in the SEC Championship that they are left out.
Bulldogs’ Remaining Schedule
Using CFN’s Football Playoff Meter, we take a look at the remaining games for the Bulldogs, but with our projected winning probability attached.
- vs. Georgia Tech: 82.6%
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