The road to the SEC Championship Game will be paved one way or another through the Georgia Bulldogs. By virtue of their win against the Tennessee Volunteers in Week 12, Georgia all but guaranteed that they’ll at least impact the final regular season standings in one way or another by finishing with a 6-2 record in conference play.
Georgia’s SEC Championship Chances
Right now, following the action in Week 12, Georgia has a 39.84% chance to win the SEC. That’s the number generated from the CFN’s Football Playoff Meter and assigned after running the remaining two weeks of the season and the SEC Championship Game a total of 10,000 times.
The simulation model likes Georgia in this instance because the Bulldogs are done with conference play and are at least guaranteed to contend for the final tiebreaking spot in the SEC Championship Game. Let’s look how that works.
MORE: Updated SEC Championship Game Scenarios
The Texas Longhorns and Texas A&M Aggies will play each other in the final week of the year. In all likelihood, the winner of that game gets into the SEC Championship Game as the only team with just one conference loss. However, Texas and Texas A&M each have another SEC game before their regular season matchup, and crazier things have happened.
As far as the rest of the scenarios, only Georgia and South Carolina have finished SEC play and with A&M-Texas splitting their games down the stretch, the final member of the SEC Championship Game will be a team with at least two losses in the conference. Georgia’s tiebreaking scenarios, however, don’t look as good as others.
How Can Georgia Make the SEC Championship Game?
So the easiest way for Georgia to make the Playoffs is for Texas and Texas A&M to drop one of their games not against one another and the remaining two-loss teams to also drop another game.
However, it’s very likely that all the two-loss teams win out as Alabama, Ole Miss, and Tennessee each should be favorites in their remaining two contests.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Georgia has to hope they get the benefit of the doubt and luck out with some very specific results. First up, Georgia has to hope that Alabama loses to Oklahoma or Auburn. Then, they have to hope Ole Miss loses to Florida or Mississippi State.
That’s because Ole Miss and Alabama hold the head-to-head tiebreaker against Georgia with straight-up victories. To make things easier, Georgia will hope A&M knocks off Texas. If these come true, Georgia will own the head-to-head tiebreaker with the two teams that have two losses (Tennessee and Texas).
If Ole Miss and/or Alabama win out alongside Tennessee and/or Texas A&M, then it’s essentially over for the Bulldogs. There’s a lot of football to be played, but it’s safe to say that Georgia will be big fans of Oklahoma, Florida, Mississippi State, Auburn, and A&M down the stretch.
Current SEC Standings
- 1) Texas Longhorns 9-1 (5-1)
- 2) Texas A&M Aggies 8-2 (5-1)
- 3) Georgia Bulldogs 8-2 (6-2)
- 4) Tennessee Volunteers 8-2 (5-2)
- 5) Alabama Crimson Tide 8-2 (4-2)
- 6) Ole Miss Rebels 8-2 (4-2)
- 7) South Carolina Gamecocks 7-3 (5-3)
- 8) Missouri Tigers 7-3 (3-3)
- 9) LSU Tigers 6-4 (3-3)
- 10) Vanderbilt Commodores 6-4 (3-3)
- 11) Arkansas Razorbacks 5-5 (3-4)
- 12) Florida Gators 5-5 (3-4)
- 13) Oklahoma Sooners 5-5 (1-5)
- 14) Auburn Tigers 4-6 (1-5)
- 15) Kentucky Wildcats 4-6 (1-6)
- 16) Mississippi State Bulldogs 2-8 (0-6)
Latest Georgia Playoff Probability Following Week 12
Despite having an outside chance at the SEC Championship Game, the Bulldogs are sitting pretty for a Playoff berth. Using our CFN FPM, the simulation model likes where the Bulldogs are ranked and gives Georgia a 32.37% chance to make the playoffs right now.
Importantly, it also gives the Bulldogs an 82.52% chance to win out down the stretch, which is imperative for Georgia to get an at-large bid in the playoffs.
The Bulldogs will hope to represent themselves in the SEC Championship Game, but with their SEC schedule done, can hone in on their resume for the playoffs with two wins over the final two weeks of the regular season.
Bulldogs’ Remaining Schedule
Using CFN’s Football Playoff Meter, we take a look at the remaining games for the Longhorns, but with our projected winning probability attached.
- vs. UMass: 99.9%
- vs. Georgia Tech: 82.6%
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