Fresno State leads the all-time series against Nevada with a 32-22-1 record and is currently on a three-game winning streak. As we approach kickoff in Friday night’s Mountain West showdown, here’s an in-depth look at the latest odds, a spread breakdown, and our prediction for Fresno State vs. Nevada.
Fresno State vs. Nevada Betting Preview
All Fresno State vs. Nevada odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Oct. 18, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Fresno State -7.5 - Spread
Fresno State -2.5 - Moneyline
Fresno State -135, Nevada +114 - Over/Under
49 points - Game Time
10:30 ET, Friday, Oct. 18 - Location
Mackay Stadium, Reno, Nev. - Predicted Weather at Kick
51 degrees, 9 mph winds, sunny - How To Watch
CBSSN
After opening as four-point favorites, Fresno State saw the line move a point and a half toward Nevada, which the FPM believes provides massive value.
That said, the Bulldogs are 1-4 against the spread in their last five vs. Nevada, and the Wolf Pack is 5-2 ATS in their last seven overall.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
A couple of other trends to keep in mind:
- Fresno State is 1-4 straight up in their last five road games.
- The total has gone OVER in seven of Nevada’s last 10 contests.
Fresno State’s Winning Probability
Despite the less-than-a-field-goal spread, the FPM gives the Bulldogs a 71.6% chance of defeating Nevada. In fact, they own a 60% or higher win probability in each of their final five games:
- vs. San Jose State: 73.0%
- vs. Hawaii: 75.1%
- at Air Force: 74.9%
- vs. Colorado State: 67.7%
- at UCLA: 60.6%
After ending the 2023 regular season with an 8-4 record, Fresno State is primed to win out the rest of this year, resulting in a 9-3 campaign. That would mark the program’s fourth straight with 8+ wins.
Nevada’s Winning Probability
Outside of a penultimate bout with Air Force, Nevada isn’t favored to win any of its final games this season, beginning with a 28.4% win probability against Fresno State.
Now, it’s important to note that the Wolf Pack have already surpassed their 2023 win total (2-10), but they sure wouldn’t mind adding a few more down the stretch. If we take their win probabilities at face value, Nevada would finish with a 4-9 record.
- at Hawaii: 38.1%
- vs. Colorado State: 45.7%
- at Boise State: 7.9%
- vs. Air Force: 58.9%
- at UNLV: 8.7%
Prediction for Fresno State vs. Nevada
The Wolf Pack have been punching above their weight under first-year head coach Jeff Choate, nearly pulling off an upset against a ranked SMU squad in their opener. Now at 3-4, they feature an opportunistic secondary but still allow 27.1 points per game.
Just last week, Nevada surged with a 21-point fourth quarter to secure a thrilling 42-37 home win over Oregon State. However, the team still ranks 116th in passing yards per game (174.7) and 108th in passing yards allowed (256.4).
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Those stats don’t paint a pretty picture, especially against a Fresno State team that ranks 32nd nationally with 270.8 passing yards per game. Coming off back-to-back losses to UNLV and Washington State, the Bulldogs will be determined to notch their fourth win of the season on Friday night.
Expect Mikey Keene to play a clean game (eight INTs this season) and spread the ball around to his playmakers, particularly WR Mac Dalena, while Brendon Lewis and company may struggle to find rhythm early on.
The edge goes to Fresno State to win outright and cover the spread, with the over looking likely as well.
Prediction: Fresno State 35, Nevada 24
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