The Florida Gators head to Tallahassee on a two-game winning streak, looking to inflict more damage on a despondent Florida State Seminoles team that has failed to live up to any expectations forecast in the offseason.
Who will win the in-state rivalry? We have the latest odds, information, and a Florida vs. Florida State prediction.
Florida vs. Florida State Betting Preview
All Kansas vs. Baylor odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and correct as of Thursday, Nov. 28, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Florida -19 - Spread
Florida -17 - Moneyline
Florida -850, Florida State +575 - Over/Under
46 points - Game time
7 p.m. ET - Location
Doak Campbell Stadium | Tallahassee, FL - Predicted Weather at Kick
48 degrees, clear, 6 mph winds - How to Watch
ESPN 2
The stage is set for Florida to extend their head-to-head record over Florida State, with the Gators leading the all-time series 37-28-2. It is difficult to understate just how strong of a favorite Billy Napier’s team is in this contest. -17 points on the road in a night game in an in-state rival game is a rare occurrence. The CFN FPM has the Gators as even stronger favorites at -19.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
While Florida State has shown nothing to think they can cover, this is a rivalry game, and as stated, that is a lot of points, especially when the over/under is set at 46. Seminoles’ head coach Mike Norvell won his last two games against the Gators — by nine points in 2023 and seven in 2022 — but this is a very different Florida State team.
Meanwhile, Florida has scored 27 and 24 points, respectively, against the LSU Tigers and Ole Miss Rebels to win tight contests in the last two weeks.
Florida’s Winning Probability
No one would have believed that Florida would be such a heavy favorite to win on the road in a rivalry game in Tallahassee at the beginning of the season. The CFN FPM gives Florida a 92.3% chance of being victorious in Doak Cambell Stadium on Saturday night and resigning their in-state rival to further misery.
- at Florida State: 92.3%
Florida State’s Winning Probability
A wretched season could be about to get even worse. The CFN FPM gives the Seminoles a 7.7% chance of winning at home in a night game against the Gators—a long way from the lofty expectations of a year ago.
- vs. Florida: 7.7%
Prediction for Florida vs. Florida State
With so much happening elsewhere, Florida at Florida State won’t carry the national relevance both programs crave. But this game still matters. The in-state rivals have an opportunity to put one on a familiar foe and pile further pain into the opposing fanbase.
The in-state rivals have been heading in different directions during the season.
MORE: 2024 College Football Power Rankings
Florida State can’t wait for the season to draw to a close, while the Gators have won their last two games against LSU and Ole Miss to become bowl-eligible, with Lagway flashing the elite talent that has fans excited for the upcoming years.
The Florida offense has the chance to take over this game. Lagway can dictate the passing game against a Seminoles’ defense that has struggled to generate takeaways.
The Gators’ QB will take shots downfield, but nothing we have seen from Norvell’s team suggests they can create interceptions, averaging just 0.2 per game in 2024.
Additionally, Florida State can’t generate the same scoring power. They have only 11 passing touchdowns in 2024, with three coming in Week 13 against Charleston Southern.
The only hope for the Seminoles is that their defensive line can create pressure on the freshman QB and limit the Gators’ running game, which could keep them in the game late.
Prediction: Florida 33, Florida State 14
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