The Florida Gators and Miami Hurricanes are each under tremendous pressure this year for very different reasons.
In Miami, expectations are sky-high as Cam Ward takes over at quarterback for a Hurricanes team with College Football Playoff aspirations. And while the Gators have talent, many in Gainesville just want to survive a daunting schedule.
We have the latest college football betting odds, DFS picks, and a Florida vs. Miami prediction.
Florida vs. Miami Betting and DFS Preview
All Florida vs. Miami odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Thursday, Aug. 29.
- Spread
Miami -2.5 - Moneyline
Miami -135, Florida +114 - Over/Under
54 points - Game time
3:30 p.m. ET - Location
Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville, Fla. - Predicted Weather at Kick
92 degrees, 6 mph winds, sunny - How to Watch
FuboTV, ABC
Both Bill Napier and Mario Cristobal have had tumultuous tenures at their respective schools, often taking part in unpredictable games. Is there a betting advantage in this one?
While the Gators are getting a couple of points at home, this game basically comes down to a pick ’em, so which way should you lean? If you’re going to take advantage of the Florida vs. Miami odds, consider a few of these factors first.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
Our CFN Strength of Schedule model leans Miami in a tight one, giving the Hurricanes a 51.4% chance to win, which comes out to a line of -1. So, while the model leans towards the Hurricanes, it suggests the smallest of edges to the Gators against the spread.
I’ll go one step further and pick the Gators outright.
Miami has traditionally struggled in its road Power Four openers, dropping three straight both straight up and against the spread. Florida will be desperate for a win, given the back half of its schedule. Without being dramatic, Florida’s hopes of a bowl could hinge on Saturday’s performance.
The home-field advantage shouldn’t be underestimated, nor should Graham Mertz and the Gator passing attack, which was remarkably steady last season.
The Hurricanes have some holes on the back end and could take a couple of games to gel. If the Gators can win in the trenches, they’ll have a chance to earn a statement win.
Top DFS Picks and Fantasy Plays
- QB Cam Ward, Miami ($9,000)
- QB Graham Mertz, Florida ($7,500)
- RB Damien Martinez, Miami ($6,900)
- RB Mark Fletcher Jr. (P), Miami ($5,800)
- RB Montrell Johnson Jr., Florida ($5,700)
- RB Ajay Allen, Miami ($4,800)
- RB Treyaun Webb, Florida ($4,500)
- WR Eugene Wilson III, Florida ($7,100)
- WR Xavier Restrepo, Miami ($6,700)
- WR Jacolby George, Miami ($6,000)
- WR Samuel Brown, Miami ($5,900)
- WR Elijhah Badger, Florida ($5,600)
- WR Arlis Boardingham, Florida ($5,200)
- WR Isaiah Horton, Miami ($5,200)
- WR Marcus Burke, Florida ($4,200)
The Saturday college football slate is packed and you have several options for compiling your DFS team in Week 1.
If you’re new to DFS, DraftKings Superflex contests require you to select a quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, a “Superflex” that can be any of the above, and a regular flex for an extra running back or receiver. This year, DFS players will see tight ends listed with the receivers.
There is a single-game option, which is any combination of six players, including one captain who is 1.5x the price, but scores 1.5x the points. The strategies for the two are a bit different.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
I would consider either quarterback in the full slate contests and wouldn’t hate playing both in the single game — Mertz for his steady presence at a quality price and Cam Ward for his scoring potential. Ward is the most expensive player of the afternoon slate.
If you put one of these quarterbacks on your roster, consider doubling up with a receiver. I’d suggest Eugene Wilson or Elijhah Badger for the Gators. Wilson should see a flurry of targets, while Badger’s ability after the catch gives him big scoring potential at a very affordable price.
On the flip side, if you’re playing on DraftKings, Xavier Restrepo is a PPR monster who was held under six catches just twice by Power Four opponents last season. He also has boom potential, with eight 20-plus point performances last season.
Isaiah Horton is a budget option that will be lightly owned. His two best games last year as a reserve were his first and last, and he has big play potential. If the Hurricanes want to test Ward’s bionic arm, Horton can run down the field and help your lineup cash with just one catch.
I don’t hate either running back here, especially at Damien Martinez’s price point. We don’t know how heavily the Hurricanes will lean on him, but if it turns into a physical game, Martinez could get the bulk of the carries.
Remember, play the big guns, fade one or two typical high-scorers to afford other guys you think will perform better, and round out your team with a budget option or two so you can play one or both of the quarterbacks.
Prediction For Florida vs. Miami
I think home-field advantage is big for Florida here, and I think the Gators, who have recently fared a bit better in high-profile openers, are ready.
Hold onto your “Fire Napier” takes, at least for a few more weeks. There will be time later for that, but I’m just not sure we’re ready to annoint Miami a road favorite against an SEC team.
The Hurricanes might still challenge for an ACC Championship and College Football Playoff spot, but I’m giving the edge to the Gators here.
Expect the Gators to dink and dunk with Mertz and then take their shots at a thin secondary. This one will be back and forth, but I think the Gators will grind it out late, limit possessions, and try to force Ward into a mistake.
For those reasons, I lean towards the under and might sprinkle a moneyline dog, but the Gators against the spread is the main pick here.
Prediction: Florida 27, Miami 24
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