The 2024-2025 FCS Playoff field is set, with all 24 teams ready to kick off. Which matchups are one-sided, and which ones are must-watch TV? We predict every game and crown a national champion in one of the most entertaining FCS seasons in recent memory.
FCS Playoff Predictions | First Round
- UT Martin vs. No. 16 New Hampshire
- Northern Arizona vs. No. 15 Abilene Christian
- Tennessee State vs. No. 14 Montana
- Drake vs. No. 13 Tarleton State
- No. 12 Illinois State vs. Southeast Missouri State*
- Eastern Kentucky vs. No. 11 Villanova
- Central Connecticut vs. No. 10 Rhode Island
- Lehigh vs. No. 9 Richmond
*No. 12 Illinois State will play on the road as a higher seed due to hosting Illinois State High School Championship games at its home stadium.
Richmond, Rhode Island, Tarleton State, and Montana should have no issue dispatching their opponents, but the rest of the first-round schedule is juicy. While Villanova is certainly beatable, as Miane and Monmouth proved, QB Connor Watkins and the defense are superior to their EKU counterparts.
UT Martin may have a more complete team compared to New Hampshire, but it’s a rough matchup for the program. The Skyhawks thrive on the ground; the Wildcats are No. 38 in rushing yards allowed. New Hampshire wins through the air; UT Martin is No. 109 in passing yards allowed.
Northern Arizona has lost to every competent team they’ve played on the road this season (Arizona, Incarnate Word, Idaho, and Montana). At the same time, Abilene Christian’s only home loss came by three points to Idaho.
Scheduling conflict gives SEMO an unexpected Round 1 home bout, but it may not be enough. The Redhawks have struggled in recent outings, losing to Tennessee State and Lindenwood while narrowly defeating Gardner-Webb (30-24) and Western Illinois (54-45). Expect Illinois State to remain disciplined and pound the rock to a win.
FCS Playoff Predictions | Second Round
- No. 16 New Hampshire vs. No. 1 Montana State
- No. 15 Abilene Christian vs. No. 2 North Dakota State
- No. 14 Montana vs. No. 3 South Dakota State
- No. 13 Tarleton State vs. No. 4 South Dakota
- No. 12 Illinois State vs. No. 5 UC Davis
- No. 11 Villanova vs. No. 6 Incarnate Word
- No. 10 Rhode Island vs. No. 7 Mercer
- No. 9 Richmond vs. No. 8 Idaho
Montana State will run all over New Hampshire. ACU can put up points on NDSU’s pass defense, but the Bison have too much talent to overcome.
We’ve already seen Montana vs. elite FCS teams this year (lost to UC Davis and Montana State handily), and it wasn’t pretty. South Dakota should be able to crush Tarleton State’s No. 67 run defense.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Illinois State lacks the passing attack to keep UC Davis’ defense honest, resulting in a slow-paced loss. Villanova finally meets its match, with Incarnate Word and Zach Calzada throwing their way to the quarterfinal.
Mercer’s defense will have a field day with Rhode Island’s sophomore QB Devin Farrell, especially with the Rams likely facing a negative game script early. Idaho QB Jack Layne has found his stride, and the Vandals have yet to lose at home — Richmond won’t end the streak in the second round.
College Football Playoff Predictions | Quarterfinal
- No. 8 Idaho vs. No. 1 Montana State
- No. 7 Mercer vs. No. 2 North Dakota State
- No. 6 Incarnate Word vs. No. 3 South Dakota State
- No. 5 UC Davis vs. No. 4 South Dakota
The Bobcats pummeled the Vandals midseason (38-7), and a similar result is well within reach. Although Mercer has been one of the more entertaining stories to watch this season, this is where the chapter ends. Cam Miller and Co. can take advantage of a leaky defense, and the Bison don’t need to worry too much about the Bears’ passing attack.
After a season-opening loss to the California Bears, UC Davis rattled off nine straight victories, including against Idaho and Montana. However, South Dakota has only lost to the Wisconsin Badgers and South Dakota State and has scored the same amount of TDs (54) as the Aggies in one fewer game.
College Football Playoff Predictions | Semifinal
- No. 4 South Dakota vs. No. 1 Montana State
- No. 3 South Dakota State vs. No. 2 North Dakota State
Is this a chalk Final Four? Yes, but parody isn’t the same on the FCS level as in the FBS.
Would Montana State rather face UC Davis again or take on the red-hot Coyotes? Probably the former, as South Dakota’s four-headed monster (QB Aidan Bouman, RBs Charles Pierre Jr. and Travis Theis, and WR Carter Bell) on offense will stretch the defense all over the field. Additionally, the Coyotes rank No. 2 in scoring and No. 6 in total defense.
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To that, I say, “It doesn’t matter.” QB Tommy Mellott has thrown 22 TDs to just one INT. RBs Scottre Humphrey (7.4) and Adam Jones (7.3) average over seven yards per carry. And it’s not as if the defense is all that far behind SD (No. 5 in scoring and No. 10 in total).
Then, there’s the Dakota Marker rematch, which SDSU is not losing twice. The Jackrabbits two games away from a national championship three-peat, and they’ll be damned if their bitter rival spoils the achievement.
College Football Playoff Predictions | National Championship Game
- No. 3 South Dakota State vs. No. 1 Montana State
That leaves us with the game we’ve all been waiting for — South Dakota State vs. Montana State.
Here’s a quick look at what the Bobcats have done to opposing defenses this season:
- Week 0 vs. New Mexico: 362 rushing yards
- Week 1 vs. Utah Tech: 329
- Week 2 vs. Maine: 344
- Week 3 vs. Mercyhurst: 256
- Week 4 vs. Idaho State: 268
- Week 6 vs. Northern Colorado: 232
- Week 7 vs. Idaho: 360
- Week 8 vs. Portland State: 323
- Week 10 vs. Eastern Washington: 316
- Week 11 vs. Sacramento State: 508
- Week 12 vs. UC Davis: 159
- Week 13 vs. Montana: 328
They are inevitable, and as much of a story SDSU’s potential three-peat has been, QB Mark Gronowski has not played like a Walter Payton Award winner, allowing Montana State to exorcise its demons in the natty (1-4 record vs. the Jackrabbits).
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