For the second successive week, ESPN brings you all-AAC Thursday night action with the East Carolina Pirates traveling to the Tulsa Golden Hurricane with bowl eligibility still within their grasp.
Who comes out on top? Our East Carolina vs. Tulsa prediction breaks down everything you need to know—from the latest betting odds to each team’s outlook for the remainder of the 2024 college football season.
East Carolina vs. Tulsa Betting Preview
All East Carolina vs. Tulsa odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Monday, Nov. 11, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
East Carolina -6 - Spread
East Carolina -14 - Moneyline
East Carolina -520, Tulsa +390 - Over/Under
61 points - Game time
7:30 p.m. ET - Location
Chapman Stadium | Tulsa, OK - Predicted Weather at Kick
46 degrees, low clouds with rain possible, 5 mph winds - How to Watch
ESPN
Thursday night sees the 18th edition of this East Carolina vs. Tulsa matchup. The Golden Hurricane has swept the Pirates away in the last four encounters, taking a 9-8 head-to-head advantage into this edition after a streak of victories dating back to 2016. However, the tide is flowing against the home team right now, and East Carolina enters the game as a significant favorite.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Being the favorite has been a challenging spot for East Carolina this year. Yet, since interim head coach Blake Harrell took the reigns, the Pirates are 2-0 and have covered the spread in both games. Both games hit the over too, and they’re 4-0 covering the points line in the last four. Take East Carolina to win, cover, and take the over against a Tulsa team that is 3-6 ATS this year.
East Carolina’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, East Carolina has a 66.4% chance of beating Tulsa on Thursday night. Our metric correctly projected the Pirates’ last two games, albeit with shorter spread lines than official lines from multiple oddsmakers.
Here are the remaining win probabilities for East Carolina in the 2024 season:
- at Tulsa: 66.4%
- at North Texas: 47.2%
- vs. Navy: 46.2%
If those win probabilities were to hold true, the Pirates would end the year with a 6-6 record, including a 4-4 AAC campaign. After firing coach Mike Houston midway through the year, that’s a better outcome than most would have expected after a 3-4 start.
Tulsa’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Tulsa has a 33.6% chance of beating East Carolina. Our metric has been a little off for the Golden Hurricane in the last two weeks, predicting a win over the UAB Blazer and a loss to the UTSA Roadrunners, giving Golden Hurricane fans at least a semblance of hope ahead of Thursday night’s game.
Here are the remaining win probabilities for Tulsa in the 2024 season:
- vs. East Carolina: 33.6%
- at USF: 17.2%
- vs. Florida Atlantic: 42.6%
If those win probabilities were to hold true, the Golden Hurricane would end the year with a 3-9 overall record, including a 1-7 AAC campaign. That would be the worst season for the program since 2016 and could put pressure on head coach Kevin Wilson.
Prediction for East Carolina vs. Tulsa
5-4 East Carolina gets a national audience for a second consecutive Thursday night as they travel to Tulsa with the ESPN cameras to take on the 3-6 Golden Hurricane. The decision to or not to make a coaching change has pitched these two teams in opposite directions, with a change for the Pirates paying instant dividends for a team that can clinch a bowl berth in Week 12.
Tulsa has stuck with head coach Wilson despite difficulties this year. A loss on Thursday night will mark three seasons without a spot in the postseason, and significant pressure is building at a program that took the AAC by storm in 2020. Who gets the result they need on Thursday night? Who has the upper hand in this matchup, and where will the key battles be fought?
Wilson arrived in Tulsa as a highly-regarded offensive coordinator who had been responsible for some of the most high-powered units in college football. However, he hasn’t been able to replicate that success for the Golden Hurricane. The story of Thursday night’s matchup begins — and ultimately ends — with that failure to replicate a flee-flowing, high-scoring offense.
Tulsa averages just 24.8 points per game this year. Outside of wins over UTSA and Northwestern State, they haven’t been able to score more than 24 points and have been held to 10 or fewer in three games. They’ve not been establish the run game, and have had to rely on the arm of Kirk Francis and Cooper Legas far too much. The program ranks 11th of 14 for yards per pass.
Meanwhile, East Carolina has flipped the switch offensively since defensive coordinator Harrell took the reigns. Establishing Katin Houser as the starting quarterback after rolling with Jake Garcia earlier in the year has been pivotal. The former four start out of St. John Bosco has the passing game operating at a high level while adding some value on the ground that is hard to stop.
Tulsa has stopped hardly anyone this season. The fewest points they’ve allowed in a single game is 20, and they’ve given up 40+ in five games — including the last two. Quarterbacks have had a field day against the Golden Hurricane, putting up an average of 308.6 yards per game and 9.4 yards per attempt, completing 65.1% of pass attempts, with over three touchdowns per game.
Expect a big game from Houser and the dynamic duo of Winston Wright Jr. and Chase Sowell as the Pirates plunder their way to bowl eligibility.
Prediction: East Carolina 45, Tulsa 21
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