Bowl games often bring regional matchups and evenly matched teams, but it’s not every day fans are treated to a rivalry during bowl season. This year, the Military Bowl delivers exactly that, though the rivalry might not be as well-known outside the Tar Heel State.
The East Carolina Pirates and NC State Wolfpack share a long, storied history. Let’s dive into how that could shape the outcome in this East Carolina vs. NC State prediction.
East Carolina vs. NC State Military Bowl Betting Preview
All East Carolina vs. NC State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Dec. 28, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
NC State -8.5 - Spread
NC State -7.5 - Moneyline
NC State -290, NC State +235 - Over/Under
60.5 points - Game Time
Saturday, Dec. 28, 5:45 p.m. ET - Location
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium | Annapolis, MD - How To Watch
ESPN
Both teams will be a bit thin at a few positions after being affected by the transfer portal and injuries. They’ll each be down their top receiver, as ECU’s Chase Sowell and NC State’s Kevin Concepcion are both transferring this offseason. Meanwhile, injuries to the secondaries could make things interesting on the outside.
The line movement for this game has been insignificant so far. After starting at NC State -5, the line has ticked to its current number of -5.5. The total has moved down slightly, from 59.5 to 58.5.
East Carolina’s Winning Probability
CFN’s FPM is slightly lower on the Pirates than Vegas, making East Carolina an 8.5-point underdog.
- vs. NC State: 25.8%
NC State’s Winning Probability
With CFN’s FPM slightly lower on East Carolina, that means they’re a bit higher on NC State winning than what Vegas thinks.
- vs. ECU: 74.2%
Prediction for East Carolina vs. NC State
As a North Carolina native, I can confidently say East Carolina and NC State absolutely hate each other. This matchup is one of the best under-the-radar rivalries in the Southeast. After a hiatus following the 1987 season, these two are back to facing off semi-regularly.
Why the pause back then, you ask?
Like most things, it came down to money. The rivalry often left chaos in its wake—goalposts torn down, end-zone lettering dug up, and costly facility repairs year after year made the series financially unsustainable.
Even with NC State in the ACC and ECU in the AAC, they’ve squared off 13 times since 1996. The Wolfpack have won the last three meetings and hold a narrow 7-6 lead in the revived series. Of the last 10 matchups, five have been decided by one score.
Heading into 2024, the Pirates have momentum. Since firing head coach Mike Houston on Oct. 20, ECU has gone 4-1, with their only loss coming in the regular-season finale against Navy. NC State, meanwhile, limped to the finish line, dropping two of their last three games and needing a win over rival North Carolina just to become bowl eligible.
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Both teams’ quarterbacks have been bright spots. ECU’s Katin Houser has been electric, throwing 18 touchdowns in his last six games, adding two on the ground, and averaging over 300 total yards per game.
For the Wolfpack, true freshman CJ Bailey has accounted for 19 total touchdowns this season. However, turnovers have been an issue—he threw three picks against Georgia Tech. When he’s on, Bailey is a dynamic dual-threat playmaker and has shown steady growth throughout the year.
I’m leaning toward Houser and the Pirates, especially against a banged-up NC State defense. Houser has shredded secondaries with his willingness to attack vertically, and he’s shown no hesitation in making the big plays.
This is a hungry ECU team under interim head coach Blake Harrell, eager to notch a fifth win with him at the helm—especially against their in-state rival. On the other side, NC State’s focus feels more on the transfer portal than the Military Bowl.
Take the points with ECU and sprinkle the Pirates on the moneyline. While I’m leaning toward this game being a shootout that creeps over the total late, my confidence is much higher in Harrell’s squad showing up ready to play.
Prediction: East Carolina 31, NC State 28
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