The Duke Blue Devils and Ole Miss Rebels are set to face off for the first time ever in the 2024 Gator Bowl. Who will walk away with the win?
Our Duke vs. Ole Miss prediction dives into everything you need to know—from the latest betting odds to what’s on the line for both teams as they clash in the TaxSlayer Gator Bowl.
Duke vs. Ole Miss Gator Bowl Betting Preview
All Duke vs. Ole Miss odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Thursday, Jan. 2, 2025. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Ole Miss -13.5 - Spread
Ole Miss -17 - Moneyline
Ole Miss -900, Duke +600 - Over/Under
50.5 points - Game Time
7:30 p.m. ET, Thursday, Jan. 2 - Location
EverBank Stadium | Jacksonville, Fla. - Predicted Weather at Kick
TBD - How To Watch
ESPN
Duke has been red hot, covering the spread in five of their last six games. Meanwhile, Ole Miss went 2-4 ATS in that time span. But there are two more spread trends to note:
- Duke is 7-1-1 ATS in its past nine outings as an underdog.
- Ole Miss is 6-1 ATS in its last seven bouts against an ACC opponent.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
As for the total, the under seems to be the play. The Blue Devils have gone under in five of their last eight games, and the Rebels have gone under in 10 of their last 11.
Duke’s Winning Probability
Mike Elko’s departure to Texas A&M marked the end of a transformative two-year run for Duke, but Manny Diaz has kept the momentum alive. The Blue Devils finished 9-3, their best record since 2014, and have a chance to cap their season on a high note.
- at Ole Miss: 16.6%
Ole Miss’ Winning Probability
Under Lane Kiffin, Ole Miss has enjoyed consistent success, with four straight winning seasons and five consecutive bowl appearances. However, 2024 was supposed to be about more than just another bowl game. Even with the College Football Playoff expanding to 12 teams, the Rebels fell short, finishing 14th in the rankings and missing the cut.
- vs. Duke: 83.4%
Prediction for Duke vs. Ole Miss
Ole Miss comes into this matchup with a clear advantage, while Duke faces an uphill battle. The Blue Devils are 1-10 straight up in their last 11 games against SEC opponents—a trend that doesn’t inspire confidence against a Rebels squad that closed out the season with four wins in their last five games.
While Ole Miss hasn’t covered as double-digit favorites since October, this might be the game to break that streak.
Duke’s quarterback situation is the glaring issue. The losses of starting QB Maalik Murphy to Oregon State and backup Grayson Loftis to the transfer portal leave the Blue Devils with Henry Belin IV, whose only experience is a single seven-yard pass.
MORE: 2024 College Football Bowl Game Opt-Out Tracker
The betting line’s movement—from -13 to -17.5—underscores just how significant these absences are. Ole Miss, with Jaxson Dart leading the offense and minimal portal losses, is primed to exploit Duke’s lack of depth under center.
For those who like the numbers, here’s the stark reality: Duke’s offense ranked 75th in EPA and 118th in success rate with Murphy in the lineup. With their QB3 taking snaps, the outlook is even bleaker. Meanwhile, Ole Miss boasts a defense ranked sixth in EPA, third in success rate, and fourth in net points per drive.
All signs point to a convincing Rebels win. Expect Ole Miss to cover and dominate a depleted Duke team.
Prediction: Ole Miss 31, Duke 10
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