The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers defeated the Jacksonville State Gamecocks 19-17 in Week 14 to secure their spot in the CUSA Championship Game against … the Gamecocks. Can they go back-to-back to earn the conference title?
Our CUSA Championship Game prediction breaks down everything you need to know — from the latest betting odds to what’s at stake for both teams as they navigate the final stretch of the 2024 college football regular season.
CUSA Championship Game Betting Preview
All CUSA Championship Game odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Monday, Dec. 2, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Jacksonville State -1 - Spread
Jacksonville State -4 - Moneyline
Jacksonville State -192, Western Kentucky +160 - Over/Under
58 points - Game Time
7:00 p.m. ET, Friday, Dec. 6 - Location
AmFirst Stadium | Jacksonville, Ala. - Predicted Weather at Kick
29 degrees, 3 mph winds, clear with periodic clouds - How To Watch
CBSSN
Despite the regular-season finale loss, the Gamecocks are 6-2 against the spread in their last eight games. Meanwhile, the Hilltoppers are 1-4 ATS in their last five heading into the title bout.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
As far as the total, there are a couple of conflicting trends to note:
- The over has hit in 11 of Jacksonville State’s last 16 games.
- The under has cashed in five of Western Kentucky’s last six home games.
Western Kentucky’s Winning Probability
The Hilltoppers have now won 8+ games in four straight seasons, the first of which saw them finish as the CUSA title runner-ups. However, they are no stranger to hoisting the trophy, having won the conference championship in 2015 and 2016.
- at Jacksonville State: 49.6%
Jacksonville State Winning Probability
In just his second year at the helm, Rich Rodriguez has led the Gamecocks to back-to-back 8-4 regular seasons and now a CUSA championship berth. The program went from FBS newcomer to potential conference winner in the same amount of time some of its graduate students earned their master’s degrees.
- vs. Western Kentucky: 50.4%
Predictions for CUSA Championship Game
It’s difficult to defeat an opponent twice in a row, let alone one in the same conference. However, there is some major injury news to keep in mind on the Jacksonville State sideline.
Starting QB Tyler Huff suffered an apparent leg injury in the third quarter of Week 14’s matchup. After a first-down run, trainers had to help him to the medical tent, and he did not return to the field, with Logan Smothers replacing him.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Sure, Huff wasn’t all that productive through the air, completing just 3 of 11 passes for 37 yards, zero touchdowns, and an interception, so Rodriguez could’ve seen the situation as an opportunity to get a spark from Smothers while resting Huff for the CUSA title.
Either way, bettors should monitor Huff’s health throughout the week, as his status would shift the needle toward Western Kentucky. For the rest of this prediction, we’ll operate under the assumption Huff will return and won’t be limited.
The Gamecocks deploy the fourth-highest run rate in the nation (33.69%), with RB Tre Stewart (237-1,403-20 rushing line) and Huff (192-1,176-13) rumbling for over 1,000 yards. To win the title, they’ll just need to continue hammering the rock, as Western Kentucky is 90th in EPA per play and 103rd in success rate vs. the run.
Jacksonville State’s effectiveness on the ground has led to a No. 16 ranking in early down EPA, but even if the Hilltoppers force third down, they likely won’t get the stop (44.2% defensive third-down success rate, 108th).
Western Kentucky QB Caden Veltkamp and Co. should still get theirs, especially against a defense sitting at 103rd in EPA and 104th in success rate. Of course, the Gamecocks just played them and can make adjustments, but that goes both ways.
In the end, I’ll take a healthy Huff and Stewart to knock off the Hilltoppers and cover the spread for the CUSA championship.
Prediction: Jacksonville State 34, Western Kentucky 28
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