The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers edged out the Jacksonville State Gamecocks 19-17 in Week 14, locking in their place in the CUSA Championship Game—where they’ll face none other than the Gamecocks again. Can the Hilltoppers make it back-to-back conference titles?
Our CUSA Championship Game prediction dives into everything you need to know, from the latest betting odds to what’s on the line for both teams as they gear up for the final showdown of the 2024 college football regular season.
CUSA Championship Game Betting Preview
All CUSA Championship Game odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Dec. 9, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Jacksonville State -1 - Spread
Jacksonville State -4.5 - Moneyline
Jacksonville State -192, Western Kentucky +160 - Over/Under
58 points - Game Time
7:00 p.m. ET, Friday, Dec. 6 - Location
AmFirst Stadium | Jacksonville, Ala. - Predicted Weather at Kick
29 degrees, 3 mph winds, clear with periodic clouds - How To Watch
CBSSN
Despite the regular-season finale loss, the Gamecocks are 6-2 against the spread in their last eight games. Meanwhile, the Hilltoppers are 1-4 ATS in their last five heading into the title bout.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
As far as the total, there are a couple of conflicting trends to note:
- The over has hit in 11 of Jacksonville State’s last 16 games.
- The under has cashed in five of Western Kentucky’s last six home games.
Western Kentucky’s Winning Probability
The Hilltoppers have now won 8+ games in four straight seasons, the first of which saw them finish as the CUSA title runner-ups. However, they are no stranger to hoisting the trophy, having won the conference championship in 2015 and 2016.
- at Jacksonville State: 49.6%
Jacksonville State Winning Probability
In just his second year at the helm, Rich Rodriguez has led the Gamecocks to back-to-back 8-4 regular seasons and now a CUSA championship berth. The program went from FBS newcomer to potential conference winner in the same amount of time some of its graduate students earned their master’s degrees.
- vs. Western Kentucky: 50.4%
Predictions for CUSA Championship Game
Beating the same opponent twice in a row is no small feat, especially within the same conference. That said, there’s a key injury storyline on the Jacksonville State sideline to keep an eye on.
Starting quarterback Tyler Huff sustained a leg injury during the third quarter of Week 14’s matchup. After a first-down run, he needed assistance to the medical tent and did not return. Logan Smothers took over in his absence.
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Granted, Huff wasn’t exactly lighting it up through the air, completing just 3 of 11 passes for 37 yards with no touchdowns and an interception. It’s possible head coach Rich Rodriguez used the injury as an opportunity to rest Huff for the CUSA title game while giving Smothers a chance to provide a spark.
Regardless, bettors should monitor Huff’s health throughout the week, as his availability could swing the edge toward Western Kentucky. For now, we’ll proceed under the assumption that Huff will play and won’t be significantly limited.
The Gamecocks lean heavily on their ground game, boasting the fourth-highest run rate in the nation (63.69%). Running back Tre Stewart (237 carries, 1,403 yards, 20 touchdowns) and Huff (192 carries, 1,176 yards, 13 touchdowns) have both surpassed 1,000 rushing yards this season. Their recipe for success is simple: keep pounding the rock. Western Kentucky, ranked 90th in EPA per play and 103rd in success rate against the run, offers little resistance.
Jacksonville State’s dominance on the ground translates to a No. 16 ranking in early-down EPA. And even if Western Kentucky manages to force third downs, their defense struggles to capitalize, allowing a 44.2% success rate on third down (108th nationally).
On the other side, Western Kentucky quarterback Caden Veltkamp and his offense will still find opportunities, especially against a Jacksonville State defense ranked 103rd in EPA and 104th in success rate. However, having just played this Gamecocks team, both sides will have adjustments to make.
When the dust settle, I’ll take a healthy Huff and Stewart to lead Jacksonville State past Western Kentucky and cover the spread in the CUSA championship game.
Prediction: Jacksonville State 34, Western Kentucky 28
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