There’s a sense of an underdog story for the remaining two members of the Pac-12, as Washington State and Oregon State were essentially abandoned as the Big 12, ACC, and Big Ten raided the former Power conference.
While the two teams certainly aren’t considered among the best teams in the country right now, Washington State just beat rival Washington in the Apple Cup to move to 3-0, and Oregon State is 2-1.
It’s been a good start, so could one of the Pac-12 teams make the College Football Playoff in the first year of its expansion, according to the College Football Network Football Playoff Meter?
Analyzing the Pac-12’s College Football Playoff Chances
Using the College Football Network Strength of Schedule metric, we can predict each team’s expected win probability for each remaining game on the schedule and use that to analyze each team’s chances of making the College Football Playoff.
But what would it take for one of these Pac-12 teams to make the College Football Playoff?
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First, teams can only make the College Football Playoff as one of the five highest-ranked Conference Champions or as one of the top 12 overall teams. Unfortunately, the two Pac-12 teams aren’t eligible to be considered a conference champion, so, just like Notre Dame, they’d have to make the playoff as an at-large team.
Per our Strenth of Schedule metric, Oregon State has the 69th-hardest remaining schedule, while Washington State has the 81st. Even if the Cougars go undefeated, they might struggle to make the top 12.
I just don’t see either team’s strength of schedule being enough to beat out some of the best non-conference champions from the SEC and Big Ten in the rankings without something crazy happening.
But this is college football, and there’s always a chance.
Could Oregon State Make the College Football Playoff?
If this were a week ago, I’d give a resounding, theoretical “yes” to this question. However, we have more data points now, and unfortunately for the Beavers, a blowout loss to rival Oregon really makes it difficult to make the College Football Playoff.
Even if the Beavers win out, it will be difficult to make the top 12. But let’s explore that possibility.
Per our Strength of Schedule metric, Oregon State is a likely favorite in five of its remaining nine games, with three others being toss-ups, and the Beavers likely underdogs for the season finale at Boise State.
Seeing that the Beavers need to likely finish 11-1, they’d need to win out. The odds of that happening, per our metric, are about 0.28%.
For the Beavers to win, many things would have to go right, and they’d probably need some luck to make the final 12.
Can Washington State Make the College Football Playoff?
The Cougars have a slightly better chance.
Per our metric, they’ll be favorites in eight of their last nine games, with a Week 5 matchup with Boise State representing the only win probability of less than 50%. We give them a slightly better than 50% chance to beat Fresno State and Oregon State and a greater than 80% chance to beat every other team on the schedule.
Still, going undefeated is difficult. Everything would have to go right.
But our Strength of Schedule metric gives the Cougars a 5% chance to win out. If they do, they’ll make the playoff.
There’s a small possibility Washington State could lose one game and still make the top 12. We won’t know until closer to the end of the year what that looks like, but at this point, it’s at least plausible that the Cougars could make the College Football Playoff.
First, they’ll need to beat San Jose State and Boise State in the next two weeks. Accomplish that, and people will start talking about the possibility of Pac-12 team in the College Football Playoff.
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