Quarterback Arch Manning has long been seen as a pro prospect due to his visible arm talent, athletic ability and, let’s face it, his last name. The Manning name carries enormous weight in the game of football, yet the Texas Longhorns’ redshirt sophomore-to-be has done an admirable job in the face of immense pressure and expectations so far.
That does come with a caveat, as Manning has only started two games in his college career. He’ll be draft eligible after this upcoming season, but is that the best decision — to only start for one collegiate season? With the continued growth of NIL and the lack of recent success for one-year college starters in the NFL, would it be best for Manning to develop another year and make the leap to the pros in 2027?
Rumors have surfaced that that’s what he wants to do, and I’m here to argue that that’s exactly what he should do.
Why Would Arch Manning Stay at Texas Past 2025?
Currently, Manning is ranked No. 13 on CSN’s 2026 Top 100 Big Board, courtesy of Owain Jones. He is the second-highest rated quarterback, with Clemson’s Cade Klubnik taking the top spot.
The difference between the two?
Klubnik, a senior in the 2025 season, has started 27 games across three seasons for the Tigers and has appeared in the ACC title game and the first round of the College Football Playoff. Klubnik is 21 years old.
Manning, on the other hand, has only started two games. While he contributed for the Longhorns when starter Quinn Ewers was healthy, it was mostly as a running quarterback. He carried the ball four times for eight yards in two CFP games. Manning turned 20 on April 27.
Per On3 Sports, Manning’s NIL valuation is exactly double that of Klubnik’s, sitting at $6.6 million compared with $3.3 million. That brings up one of the main reasons the Longhorns’ passer could conceivably stay another year at the college level.
Manning is the highest-paid player in college football by more than $2 million, and the number is still growing. With him now expected to start in the fall, his valuation is expected to climb even higher. In fact, there’s belief that it could reach eight figures.
If he were to declare for the 2026 NFL Draft, he would more than likely be taking a pay cut. Yes, a pay cut.
In recent years, it’s become increasingly common for players projected to be late-round picks — or in college basketball, second-round selections where the money isn’t fully guaranteed — to enter the transfer portal and find guaranteed money with a collegiate program. It’s a smart financial decision, as they’re often making more in NIL money than they would on a rookie deal.
But what we haven’t seen is a player of Manning’s magnitude pull that trigger.
It would be surprising for a player projected as a first-round pick — as Manning currently is and is expected to remain — to return to school. But with how much money he’s making, it actually makes sense.
According to Spotrac, which specializes in NFL contract details, the first overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft will make $7.8 million in the first year, then $9.7 million, $11.7 million and $13.6 million over the final season of the four-year deal.
While those amounts will presumably rise as the NFL salary cap increases, they still wouldn’t surpass the $10 million Manning could potentially earn through NIL. And that’s assuming he’s the first overall pick.
If he were, say, the No. 10 pick, he wouldn’t make $10 million in any year of the contract, topping out at $7.5 million in Year 4.
Financially, it’s not hard to see why staying an extra year and exhausting his eligibility makes sense, even for a highly touted prospect.
The argument for declaring early is that Manning would reach his second NFL contract sooner.
But that logic only holds if he’s certain to be a high performer at the next level. Fifteen starting quarterbacks are making at least $40 million per year. Ten are above $50 million, with Cowboys signal-caller Dak Prescott leading the league at a record-setting $60 million annually.
Regardless of when he reaches a second contract, the money will be there. What matters is whether he develops into a franchise quarterback — and to do so, he needs reps and time on the field.
Declaring early after minimal college reps is risky. Unfortunately, recent history hasn’t been kind to those who took that route.
In the past four NFL Drafts, only two first-round quarterbacks had one full season of starting experience: North Dakota State’s Trey Lance in 2021 and Florida’s Anthony Richardson in 2023. Go back four more years and you can add North Carolina’s Mitchell Trubisky, selected in 2017, to the list.
Aside from Trubisky being named a Pro Bowl alternate in 2019 — a season in which he threw 17 touchdowns and 10 interceptions — none have done anything of note in the NFL.
Lance, the No. 3 pick, started five games for the 49ers before being traded to the Cowboys before the 2024 season. He signed a one-year deal with the Chargers and is currently competing for a backup job.
The Colts selected Richardson fourth overall. His early career has been plagued by injuries, immaturity and a lack of development — echoing concerns the 49ers had about Lance, minus the maturity issues. Ahead of 2025, Richardson is in a quarterback battle with Daniel Jones.
Trubisky, after four underwhelming seasons as the Bears’ starter, is four years into a journeyman backup career.
The question is simple. Why didn’t they develop into competent NFL quarterbacks?
The answer lies in the lack of college reps and, therefore, limited development time.
Lance started 16 games and threw just 318 passes — the fewest pass attempts for a first-round quarterback in over 40 years. Richardson and Trubisky started 13 games each and attempted 327 and 446 passes, respectively.
Those same deficiencies followed them into the NFL.
For context, recent success stories like C.J. Stroud, Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa and Josh Allen each started two college seasons, attempted more than 600 passes and gained critical experience before jumping to the NFL.
Manning has attempted just 95 passes in his college career with only two starts.
History favors Manning staying at Texas for two full seasons — and he’d be earning more money doing it than he would as a rookie in the NFL.
KEEP READING: Analyst Predicts Arch Manning Will Enter 2027 NFL Draft, Not 2026
As mentioned, it would be an unprecedented decision, one that could inspire other top prospects to spurn the NFL and return to school. But what will he do?
We’ll have to wait and see.
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