The No. 1 Oregon Ducks, No. 2 Georgia Bulldogs, No. 3 Boise State Broncos, and No. 4 Arizona State Sun Devils rose as conference champions together and fell in the College Football Playoff quarterfinals together. Credit the teams that beat them, but is the CFP’s first-round bye a curse rather than a gift?
Extra Time Off Doomed Conference Champions in College Football Playoff?
The Ohio State Buckeyes (34-8), Texas Longhorns (17-3), and Notre Dame Fighting Irish (13-3) each roared out to double-digit leads by halftime, while the Penn State Nittany Lions came out the gate firing in the first quarter (14-0).
While the conference champions were able to put up more of an effort in the second half — particularly Arizona State, who took Texas to overtime — they simply dug graves they were unable to dig out of.
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Coaching, game-planning, and overall talent beat them on the field, but how much of a factor did rest — rust — play?
Well, the top four seeds received a first-round bye, meaning their last games were played in the first week of December (Dec. 6 for Boise State; Dec. 7 for Oregon, Georgia, and Arizona State).
The non-bye teams? Between Dec. 20-21. That’s nearly a month of rest compared to under two weeks.
Yes, a long break from a strenuous season is certainly welcomed; just ask Georgia head coach Kirby Smart.
“It means rest for a team that (SEC Commissioner) Greg Sankey and his staff sent on the road all year long,” Smart said following the SEC Championship Game. “We get to take a little bit of a break and get ready for the College Football Playoff. This team needs some rest mentally, needs a little time off.”
However, it’s difficult to keep a team from becoming complacent and coming out flat without a real game in three weeks.
Montana State head coach Brent Vigen, who was an assistant at North Dakota State for three national titles (2011-13), told the AP Press the extra time off was essential for the Bison’s dynasty:
“It really allows you to reset in some ways, put the regular season behind you, and certainly get healthier.”
He concentrated on fundaments during bye week workouts to avoid coming out flat in their playoff opener.
“We go good (players) on good,” Vigen said. “If you were just stone cold taking these weeks off, I think you’d be in trouble.”
According to the AP, since 2013 (excluding the COVID-19 season in 2020), 18 out of 88 unseeded FCS teams have upset top-eight seeds that had an extra week of rest. However, none of those 18 teams made it past the semifinals.
The postseason bye week discussion is also prevalent in the NFL, but, like in the FCS, it’s clear who has the advantage. From 2010 to 2024, 20 of the 26 Super Bowl teams had a first-round bye. Plus, the most common Super Bowl matchup in history is between the No. 1 seeds.
More numbers: only one-third of teams teams who make the NFL playoffs receive a first-round bye. Yet, those teams made up roughly 90% of Super Bowl participants from 1975 to 2014. In short, a guaranteed trip to the Divisional Round with an extra week to improve the health of the roster is a massive advantage.
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But there is also another aspect we haven’t mentioned: the teams who receive byes in the NFL and the FCS playoffs are, by and large, the best teams on the field. That was the case in the expanded CFP’s debut.
Reserving a bye week for the top four conference champions does not guarantee the four best overall squads will reap the reward. Case in point: Boise State entered the quarterfinal bout with Penn State as an 11.5-point underdog, while Arizona State was +13.5 against Texas. Perhaps the bye week itself isn’t the issue.
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