The Bounce House will be rocking with the Buffaloes come to town to face the Knights, but who has the actual advantage? Our Colorado vs. UCF prediction holds the answers.
Colorado vs. UCF Betting Preview
All Colorado vs. UCF odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Sept. 28, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
UCF -4 - Spread
UCF -14 - Moneyline
Colorado +400, UCF -535 - Over/Under
62 - Game Time
Saturday, Sept. 28, 3:30 p.m. ET - Location
FBC Mortgage Stadium | Orlando, Fla. - Predicted Weather at Kick
87 degrees, rain - How To Watch
Fox
UCF initially opened as an 11-point favorite, but that number has ballooned to two full touchdowns during the game week, reaching -14.5 by Wednesday and landing at -14 on Friday morning. The total opened at 64 and has come down just a touch, but looks to hover around that 62-point mark for the game.
The Buffs head to Orlando 2-2 against the spread and 0-1 in their only game on the season as an underdog. The Knights are 3-0 against the spread and 2-0 as favorites against the spread, including covers as 38-point and 21.5-point favorites.
The moneyline has favored them throughout and crept out to -625 on Wednesday, with more money likely to come close to game time.
Colorado Remaining Winning Probabilities
Using CFN’s Football Playoff Meter and our own Strength of Schedule metrics, we can take a look at the winning probabilities for the rest of Colorado’s schedule. While CFN doesn’t project their matchup against UCF to be as big as the Vegas lines say, it should be noted that our numbers also don’t give Colorado much hope from here on out:
- Kansas State 47.5%
- @ Arizona 31.2%
- Cincinnati 65.7%
- @ Texas Tech 47.2%
- Utah 34.3%
- @ Kansas 46.2%
- Oklahoma State 48.2%
Those winning probabilities put Colorado as the underdogs in all but one of their remaining seven contests. And with the way Cincinnati can score, that could change come the time the Bearcats head to Boulder.
Needless to say, these probabilities make a win in Orlando almost a necessity.
UCF Remaining Winning Probabilities
Using the same logic above, we take a look at what the data says for the Knights. Using the Strength of Schedule and FPM to run 10,000 simulations across the back half of UCF’s schedule, these are their winning probabilities:
- @ Florida 51.2%
- Cincinnati 73.0%
- @ Iowa State 31.2%
- BYU 52.5%
- Arizona 48.8%
- @ Arizona State 51.8%
- @ West Virginia 48.2%
- @ Utah 26.2%
The Knights may very well open next week against in-state rival and SEC foe Florida as an away favorite if they perform well against Colorado. What a stark comparison that would be for Florida fans who get irrationally angry with anything UCF does.
STill, their schedule doesn’t get much easier down the stretch. With home games against BYU and Arizona essentially toss-up games at the moment, they’ll have to rely on some away contests to put them into the Big 12 Championship picture.
Prediction for Colorado vs. UCF
I’m 1-0 picking both of these teams in 2024— taking Colorado and their first cover of the year against Colorado State. I also took UCF to go into Texas two weeks ago and knock off TCU as road dogs.
Now, I’ve got to pick one to fall short of the spread, and it’s no easy task. This game feels like a nightmare matchup for both defenses.
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Josh Hoover torched UCF’s secondary two weeks back, throwing for 402 yards and four touchdowns on 35-of-52 passing. He probably deserved to walk away with the win. Sanders is just as dangerous and will likely pick apart this UCF secondary if Colorado’s offensive line can keep him on his feet.
The key difference between TCU and Colorado is in the trenches. TCU gave Hoover plenty of protection, and I’m not convinced Colorado can offer the same support.
On the flip side, Colorado’s defensive front has been pushed around at times this season—just rewatch the Nebraska game. This UCF offense is a master of creating running lanes, cutbacks, and misdirection that wreak havoc on defensive lines.
In a matchup loaded with talent, it’s the battle up front that will decide the outcome. I see UCF’s offensive line paving the way for Harvey and Jefferson to run wild.
I also believe the UCF front seven will bring enough pressure to disrupt Sanders. We’ve seen him pull off some incredible heroics, but it’s just too tall a task in Orlando on Sunday.
Expect the narrative to swing back to questioning if Colorado is overrated.
The Prediction: UCF 43, Colorado 23
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