A wild Week 13 will certainly shake up the College Football Playoff Rankings and the committee has its work cut out for them. How far will the Indiana Hoosiers, Alabama Crimson Tide, and Ole Miss Rebels fall after road losses? Will the Clemson Tigers and South Carolina Gamecocks move up enough to make the Palmetto Bowl a play-in game?
Here, I’ll project what I think the committee will do, not what I would do. There are some difficult decisions ahead of Tuesday’s rankings reveal, so here’s how I think things could shake out.
College Football Playoff Rankings Projections | Full Top 25
25) Syracuse Orange (NR)
24) Colorado Buffaloes (-8)
23) BYU Cougars (-9)
22) Illinois Fighting Illini (+3)
21) UNLV Rebels (+4)
20) Missouri Tigers (+3)
19) Texas A&M Aggies (-4)
18) Iowa State Cyclones (+4)
17) Tulane Green Wave (+3)
16) Arizona State Sun Devils (+5)
I won’t spend much time talking about the Big 12. The winner will get in, though not likely with a first-round bye, as the 12th seed, no matter who wins the conference or where they’re ranked in the final CFP rankings. That is unless the Boise State Broncos lose.
Speaking of Boise State and the Group of Five, things got very interesting, courtesy of… the Fresno State Bulldogs.
The Colorado State Rams weren’t ever really going to challenge Boise State for a Mountain West title, but now the UNLV Rebels are back in business and have a chance to win the conference. Their two losses are to Boise State and Syracuse, who I think will be ranked this week. The win over the Kansas Jayhawks looks better now, as well.
If the Rebels beat the Broncos in the Mountain West title game, I think there’s a good chance they can jump Tulane.
The only non-Big 12, non-Group of Five teams with a legitimate chance to make the College Football Playoff here is Texas A&M. The Aggies are essentially out of it for an at-large bid but could be a bid stealer if they can beat Texas Saturday and then Georgia in the SEC Championship.
MORE: Big 12 Championship Game Scenarios
15) Ole Miss Rebels (-6)
14) South Carolina Gamecocks (+4)
13) Clemson Tigers (+4)
12) Alabama Crimson Tide (-5)
11) Boise State Broncos (+1)
This is where I diverge from some of the other College Football Playoff rankings projections that I’ve seen. The committee seems to be punishing bad losses more than rewarding good wins this season.
So yes, the Ole Miss Rebels have beaten two teams ahead of them in the rankings this season, but they also have three of just nine total unranked losses in the top 15. I think the committee punishes them for that, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see them even lower than 15th here.
People might disagree with Alabama staying in the top 12, but it’d be a long drop if they didn’t. That being said, I don’t think the Crimson Tide can do anything this weekend against the Auburn Tigers to prevent a drop below the winner of South Carolina vs. Clemson.
Speaking of the Palmetto Bowl, that game is as close to a College Football Playoff play-in game as you’ll see this season.
The winner will be, at worst, 12th, with another chance to move up, with an ACC team ahead of them in the rankings guaranteed another loss. Remember, with the Big 12 Champion almost certainly falling outside the top 12 in the final rankings, the No. 11 spot is likely the final at-large seed.
10) SMU Mustangs (+3)
9) Tennessee Volunteers (+2)
8) Indiana Hoosiers (-3)
7) Georgia Bulldogs (+3)
6) Miami Hurricanes (+2)
5) Penn State Nittany Lions (-1)
4) Notre Dame Fighting Irish (+2)
3) Texas Longhorns (-)
2) Ohio State Buckeyes (-)
1) Oregon Ducks (-)
Though Indiana didn’t look great, especially offensively, against the Buckeyes, I only have them falling three spots. It makes sense to have them below a Georgia team with a top-five win on its resume but above a Tennessee team whose best win just got worse after Alabama dropped out of the top 10.
I think there are two other shakeups here. I have Notre Dame jumping Penn State after the Nittany Lions survived largely due to P.J. Fleck’s conservative coaching, and the Irish once again blew out a quality service academy. I also think SMU will likely jump Boise State after the Broncos struggled mightily in Laramie after Ashton Jeanty got banged up.
As a note, I think Penn State would have dropped out of the top 10 with a second loss. It seems like the committee is giving teams one free mistake this season, but if it happens twice, a team with a weaker schedule might get dropped significantly, as Georgia did a few weeks ago.
That should make Texas and Notre Dame fans a bit wary, as each team is only a touchdown favorite this weekend. If either loses, it’s at least possible that they’d miss the playoff entirely.
College Football Playoff Rankings Projections | First Round
- No. 12 Arizona State Sun Devils vs. No. 5 Ohio State Buckeyes
- No. 11 SMU Mustangs vs. No. 6 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
- No. 10 Tennessee Volunteers vs. No. 7 Penn State Nittany Lions
- No. 9 Indiana Hoosiers vs. No. 8 Georgia Bulldogs
Spoiler alert: I don’t think this is close to what we’ll see in the first round. Personally, I have Ohio State and Georgia winning their respective conferences, which would put Oregon and Texas in these first-round games. I’m also not convinced SMU will make the playoff if the Mustangs lose to Miami (Or Clemson) in the ACC Championship.
The 12-seed could be called “Insert Big 12 Champion here” as there are eight teams with a chance to win the conference and a minuscule chance of the conference’s winner being ranked in the top 11.
College Football Rankings Projections | 1-4 Seeds
1) Oregon Ducks
The Ducks play the Washington Huskies on Saturday before a likely rematch with Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship. While a loss there would sting, the Ducks would still likely be the No. 5 seed. It’s not a first-round bye, but it’d be a date with the Big 12 Champion.
MORE: Big Ten Championship Game Scenarios
2) Texas Longhorns
This, of course, assumes much of the Longhorns. To get here, they’d need back-to-back wins over Texas A&M and Georgia. That seems unlikely, but as it stands, they’re the highest-ranked SEC team this week.
I think the Longhorns will lose this week, making things extremely interesting. If Texas A&M wins twice, the Aggies would get a bye, right? There’s no way the SEC Champion has to play a first-round game. At least, I don’t think they would.
3) Miami Hurricanes
Miami got its mulligan after a loss to the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, as long as the Hurricanes take care of business this week against Syracuse. However, I’m not sure a two-loss Miami team makes the Playoff, even if the second loss comes in the ACC Championship.
This seeding isn’t close to settled, and all the Hurricanes can do is continue to win. If not, it puts the committee in an interesting situation.
4) Boise State Broncos
After the craziness in the Big 12 last week, the Broncos have more breathing room in the race for the four seed, but that doesn’t mean they feel better than they did a week ago. Jeanty’s injury showed the fragility of this team.
Also, Colorado State’s loss shouldn’t make the Broncos feel warm and fuzzy. In fact, assuming they play each other again, I think UNLV beats Boise State in the Mountain West Championship Game. That would throw a wrench in the entire operation.
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