With just two weeks remaining in the college football regular season, we’re getting down to the wire as the playoff picture begins to become clearer. A few Week 12 upsets will shake up the rankings on Tuesday, but what will those rankings look like?
This is not how I would rank the teams but rather how I think the committee will rank them when the rankings drop on Tuesday night. How could the teams line up in the third College Football Playoff Rankings?
College Football Playoff Rankings Projections | Full Top 25
25) Illinois Fighting Illini
24) UNLV Rebels
23) Kansas State Wildcats
22) Iowa State Cyclones
21) Arizona State Sun Devils
20) Tulane Green Wave
19) Army Black Knights
18) South Carolina Gamecocks
17) Clemson Tigers
16) Colorado Buffaloes
This bottom 10 of the top 25 is very interesting. Five of the teams ranked Nos. 16-25 in last week’s rankings lost on Saturday. Of those teams, I only think one or two will stay in the rankings, meaning we’ll have several new teams join the top 25 this week.
I kept Kansas State in the rankings this week simply because the Wildcats were ranked the highest of any of this group that lost.
MORE: Big 12 Championship Game Scenarios
I’m interested to see how close, quality wins will affect the committee’s view of Clemson and South Carolina. The winner of that final rivalry game could have a strong case to make the top 12, given the carnage happening around them.
BYU’s loss opens things up for any of these lurking Big 12 teams to make the College Football Playoff, but a first-round bye is no longer guaranteed.
15) BYU Cougars
14) Texas A&M Aggies
13) Tennessee Volunteers
12) SMU Mustangs
11) Boise State Broncos
What in the world will the committee do with BYU? While the Cougars were squeaking out wins and staying undefeated, the committee had no choice but to keep them in the top 10. But now that they’ve lost, the committee might really bring down the hammer on the Cougars, who can still make the College Football Playoff by winning their conference.
As of now, the Big 12 will not have a first-round bye. And if Army wins this weekend or there’s some sort of weird tie-breaking scenario in which a three-loss Big 12 team wins the conference, the conference could be shut out from the playoff completely.
Take note of Boise State’s position. At this point, the ACC winner likely gets the No. 3 seed, but if SMU or Miami were to lose again, the Broncos could be a third seed when all is said and done.
10) Ole Miss Rebels
9) Alabama Crimson Tide
8) Miami Hurricanes
7) Georgia Bulldogs
6) Notre Dame Fighting Irish
5) Indiana Hoosiers
4) Penn State Nittany Lions
3) Texas Longhorns
2) Ohio State Buckeyes
1) Oregon Ducks
I was surprised that the committee punished Georgia more than it punished Miami after Week 12’s losses, and now that the Bulldogs have another quality win, I expect the committee to jump them over the Hurricanes.
The top five should remain unchanged, but Notre Dame becomes the beneficiary of BYU and Tennessee’s losses on Saturday. There are two intriguing ranked matchups this week as Army vs. Notre Dame is likely to act as a College Football Playoff elimination game while the outcome of Indiana vs. Ohio State could have significant ramifications.
If Indiana wins, there’s a scenario in which Ohio State would be out of the running. If the Buckeyes blow out the Hoosiers, I think the committee could push the Hoosiers out of the top 12, given their lack of quality wins so far this season.
College Football Playoff Rankings Projections | First Round
- No. 12 BYU Cougars vs. No. 5 Ohio State Buckeyes
- No. 11 Ole Miss Rebels vs. No. 6 Penn State Nittany Lions
- No. 10 Alabama Crimson Tide vs. No. 7 Indiana Hoosiers
- No. 9 Georgia Bulldogs vs. No. 8 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Most of these matchups look similar to what I projected last week, with one notable exception: the Big 12 is currently the “Group of Five” seed, as some analysts used to erroneously call it. Obviously, the big change is going to come after Indiana and Ohio State play this week.
I’m most intrigued by Ole Miss playing Penn State in this scenario as a first-round matchup between two teams tabbed by many to be winners of an expanded playoff.
College Football Rankings Projections | 1-4 Seeds
1) Oregon Ducks
Oregon didn’t look dominant against Wisconsin, and that’s OK. The Ducks are a bit banged up but should be locked into a playoff spot.
MORE: Big Ten Championship Game Scenarios
The Ducks should beat Washington to await the winner of Indiana vs. Ohio State. A loss in the Big Ten Championship would sting, but they’d still likely end up as the fifth seed and host a home playoff game.
2) Texas Longhorns
In all honestly, I’m not so sure we see the Longhorns in this spot at the end of the season, but for now, they hold strong to the second seed. The Longhorns still have work to do just to make the SEC Championship Game as a showdown with in-state rival Texas A&M looms large.
Still, they control their own destiny; if they beat Texas A&M, they’re probably in the playoff, even if they lose in the SEC championship.
But, if the Longhorns lose to the Aggies, I’m not sure this is a résumé worthy of the College Football Playoff, as they’d be 0-2 against ranked opponents with the best win against a Vanderbilt Commodores team that could finish 6-6.
3) Miami Hurricanes
What if Miami’s loss to Georgia Tech does not affect its season whatsoever?
We always thought the winner of the ACC would have the No. 3 seed, given what we know about the conferences. And the Hurricanes still control their own destiny as they’ll be ranked somewhere between No. 6 and 10 if they win the ACC.
The margin for error for the ACC is slim, especially given Boise State’s ranking, but if the Hurricanes win two very winnable games and beat SMU (or Clemson) in the ACC championship, they’ll get the bye and the No. 3 seed.
4) Boise State Broncos
Your Boise State Broncos will have a bye in this week’s iteration of the College Football Playoff Rankings. I just don’t see any way that the committee keeps BYU above the Broncos, who continue to take care of business.
In fact, barring something crazy, I think the Broncos should finish ahead of the winner of the Big 12. Some people would gripe, but having a Group of Five team beat out one of the Power conferences in Year 1 of the new 12-team format would be awesome.
Boise State isn’t your typical Group of Five either. We’ve already seen the Broncos hang in the trenches with Oregon — depending on the matchup, I think they could bully a team or two in the current top 10.
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