It’s nearly time for the College Football Playoff Selection Committee’s second CFP rankings to be released, and we learned a lot about how the people responsible for setting the playoff field feel about the teams. Week 10 was crazy and will create some shakeups.
This is not how I would rank the teams but rather how I think the committee will rank them when the rankings drop on Tuesday night. How could the teams line up in the second College Football Playoff Rankings?
College Football Playoff Rankings Projections | Full Top 25
25) Iowa State Cyclones
24) South Carolina Gamecocks
23) LSU Tigers
22) Missouri Tigers
21) Army Black Knights
20) Clemson Tigers
19) Louisville Cardinals
18) Washington State Cougars
17) Colorado Buffaloes
16) Kansas State Wildcats
This bottom 10 of the top 25 is very interesting. How far will LSU and Iowa State fall? Will the Tigers slot in ahead of the South Carolina Gamecocks, who they beat early in the season but are playing substantially better than the Tigers of late?
There are several teams currently ranked here that just handled business against decent teams in Week 10 without being either overly impressive or underwhelming.
There’s also an interesting storyline to track here as the committee seems to like Kansas State a bit better than Colorado, but the latter controls its own destiny while the former cannot reach the conference title game without help.
If several teams on the bubble lose, will the committee value Washington State (which should simply win out against inferior competition), or will one of these other teams that can rack up quality wins (like Clemson or South Carolina) jump them to get near the top 15?
15) Texas A&M Aggies
14) Miami Hurricanes
13) Georgia Bulldogs
12) Boise State Broncos
11) SMU Mustangs
The committee loves to set up the rankings in a way that lets future games remove as much controversy as possible. With the Mustangs having a “better loss” than Miami, they remain in place while Miami falls behind. But, if either team wins out, that team will make it.
Georgia has not been impressive this season a various points, and I think the Bulldogs get punished for that. However, a win over Tennessee this weekend puts them right back in the conversation, similar to how Ole Miss’ win over the Bulldogs should put the Rebels in the top 10.
The Miami loss does put Boise State closer to a potential No. 4 seed as the fourth-highest-ranked conference champion.
10) Ole Miss Rebels
9) Alabama Crimson Tide
8) BYU Cougars
7) Notre Dame Fighting Irish
6) Indiana Hoosiers
5) Tennessee Volunteers
4) Penn State Nittany Lions
3) Texas Longhorns
2) Ohio State Buckeyes
1) Oregon Ducks
The committee made it clear last week that there’s a hierarchy to power conferences and that two-loss SEC teams could be above one-loss ACC teams. Well, the Hurricanes finally touched the hot stove after flirting with losses earlier in the year. I don’t expect them to be in the top 10.
In the hierarchy of two-loss SEC teams, I’ve always had Ole Miss near the top based on results up to this point. So it surprised me to see the Rebels ranked as the fourth-best two-loss SEC team. After dismantling Georgia, I think the Rebels will jump into the top 10.
The top five/six should be easy to predict this week, but I wonder if the committee allows a team or two to jump BYU after the Cougars escaped with a tight win Saturday.
College Football Playoff Rankings Projections | First Round
- No. 12 Boise State Broncos vs. No. 5 Ohio State Buckeyes
- No. 11 Ole Miss Rebels vs. No. 6 Penn State Nittany Lions
- No. 10 Alabama Crimson Tide vs. No. 7 Tennessee Volunteers
- No. 9 Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. No. 8 Indiana Hoosiers
I ran several iterations of this and got Notre Dame and Penn State playing each other almost every time. I think the Fighting Irish get the nod thanks to a harder schedule and better wins, putting that game in South Bend, Ind., instead of Happy Valley.
Boise State could jump all the way to the No. 4 seed if an expected conference champion in the Big 12 or ACC slips up. Elsewhere, Ole Miss (or whichever two-loss SEC team you prefer) heads to Knoxville, Tenn., and Indiana, despite its unblemished record, still has to travel to Austin, Texas, in the first round.
College Football Rankings Projections | 1-4 Seeds
1) Oregon Ducks
There’s not much to say here. The Ducks will continue to cruise in the regular season, but if they don’t beat Ohio State (or Indiana) in the Big Ten Championship Game, they won’t have a first-round bye. If they win out and win the conference championship, there is no scenario where they’re not the top seed.
Oregon is humming and looks like the best team in the country. With the new playoff format, they’ll need to prove that several games in a row.
2) Texas Longhorns
Texas dismantled Florida and its third-string quarterback, but the better results happened around the country, as the SEC is now comfortably ahead of the ACC with Miami’s loss, and a Georgia loss gives the Longhorns a bit of wiggle room in the race to make the SEC title game.
Should the Longhorns lose that championship game (or miss it entirely) they’re likely still in the playoff, but they’ll obviously need to win a first-round game to reach the quarterfinals.
3) BYU Cougars
Despite pulling a rabbit out of its hat against the Utah Utes on Saturday, BYU moves up a spot in this scenario, thanks to Miami’s loss. The Cougars own a head-to-head win over SMU, but that’s not as important in this scenario as the Cougars are comfortably ahead of the fourth-best potential conference champion in the rankings.
Even if the Cougars lose in the regular season, they’ll have a chance to earn an automatic bye in the playoff as only Colorado has fewer than two losses in the Big 12.
4) SMU Mustangs
SMU is playing really well right now but has no shot at jumping into the No. 3 seed, barring a BYU loss. The Mustangs are not going to jump an undefeated team that beat them, no matter how well they continue to play.
While Miami’s loss helps a bunch of other teams, it doesn’t change the formula for the Mustangs. At this point, they won’t make the playoff as an at-large team — they’ll need to win the ACC.
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