The time is finally upon us. Tuesday, Nov. 5, the College Football Playoff Committee will drop its initial top 25 rankings. We can finally stop using the AP and Coaches Polls and start using the actual rankings that matter when talking about teams.
This is not how I would rank the teams but rather how I think the committee will rank them when the rankings drop on Tuesday night. Here is College Football Network’s College Football Playoff Rankings Projections.
College Football Playoff Rankings Projections | Full Top 25
25) South Carolina Gamecocks
24) Louisville Cardinals
23) Missouri Tigers
22) Clemson Tigers
21) Army Black Knights
20) Kansas State Wildcats
19) Pittsburgh Panthers
18) Iowa State Cyclones
17) Colorado Buffaloes
16) LSU Tigers
Expect the back 40% of the rankings to be filled with Power Conference teams with multiple losses. I think Army probably slides in front of any three-loss Power Conference teams and it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Tulane Green Wave sneak in.
This should take care of itself. These teams will need to go on runs to win their conferences, and all 10 of these teams play at least one more top 15 team (or would play one in a championship game), giving each school the opportunity to move up in the rankings.
The biggest key here is where Army (or Tulane) comes in for the initial rankings. If there’s a huge gap between the second-best Group of Five team and Boise State, the Broncos are in as long as they win. If the second-ranked Group of Five team is close (especially if it’s an undefeated Army team with Notre Dame remaining on the regular-season schedule), things could get interesting.
15) SMU Mustangs
14) Boise State Broncos
13) Texas A&M Aggies
12) BYU Cougars
11) Alabama Crimson Tide
This next crop feels like how the committee likes to rank. If Boise State is ranked here, it would be the second-highest initial ranking for a Group of Five team in the history of the College Football Playoff era behind an undefeated Cincinnati team in 2021 that had already beaten Notre Dame.
BYU’s ranking doesn’t matter all that much, as long as the Cougars are above Boise State in order to get a first-round bye as the fourth-best conference champion.
10) Indiana Hoosiers
9) Ole Miss Rebels
8) Penn State Nittany Lions
7) Notre Dame Fighting Irish
6) Tennessee Volunteers
5) Miami Hurricanes
4) Texas Longhorns
3) Georgia Bulldogs
2) Ohio State Buckeyes
1) Oregon Ducks
While we don’t have much data regarding how the College Football Playoff Committee will rank teams with 12 playoff spots on the line, there are a few key differences between how the committee ranks and how coaches, AP Poll voters, and fans tend to rank teams.
First, the CFP committee cares more about the strength of the schedule than the actual record, which pushes teams like Indiana and BYU down the list. The committee also cares about how teams win, which pushes Miami behind teams like Ohio State and Texas.
While I disagree with those things, I respect the committee’s ability to rank in a way that lets things play out on the field. For example, while Indiana is ranked lower, the Hoosiers have a path to the No. 1 overall seed with potential wins over Ohio State and Oregon.
The only real surprise I have here is that the Ole Miss Rebels are ranked far above their AP poll ranking. I think the committee will respect the way the Rebels have beaten a few of the teams on the schedule. And, if they lose Saturday to Georgia, the committee will just drop them back and wipe their hands clean.
College Football Playoff Rankings Projections | First Round
- No. 12 Boise State Broncos vs. No. 5 Ohio State Buckeyes
- No. 11 Indiana Hoosiers vs. No. 6 Texas Longhorns
- No. 10 Ole Miss Rebels vs. No. 7 Tennessee Volunteers
- No. 9 Penn State Nittany Lions vs. No. 8 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
I ran several iterations of this and got Notre Dame and Penn State playing each other almost every time. I think the Fighting Irish get the nod thanks to a harder schedule and better wins, putting that game in South Bend, Ind., instead of Happy Valley.
Boise State could jump all the way to the No. 4 seed if an expected conference champion in the Big 12 or ACC slips up. Elsewhere, Ole Miss (Or whichever two-loss SEC team you prefer) heads to Knoxville, Tenn., and Indiana, despite its unblemished record, still has to travel to Austin, Texas, in the first round.
College Football Rankings Projections | 1-4 Seeds
1) Oregon Ducks
Oregon is the clear No. 1 team with two of the best wins in college football this year, so I feel confident in having the Ducks first. Beyond that, we’re just not sure what things will look like. The Ducks have beaten two other teams in the current playoff field, including Ohio State, a team I have ranked second.
There aren’t many teams in the rankings that can afford to slip up, but Oregon is safe, though a potential rematch with the Buckeyes in the Big Ten Championship Game could determine if they get a first-round bye.
2) Georgia Bulldogs
The beauty of the current parity in college football is that, no matter what, the second seed will be a deeply and noticeably flawed team. Georgia gets some benefit of the doubt as a perennial power, but Carson Beck has been terrible at times this season; that will bite the Bulldogs at some point if he doesn’t improve. As the highest-ranked SEC team, though, they get the nod at No. 2
3) Miami Hurricanes
Unless the committee pulls a shocker and ranks the Hurricanes ahead of all of the SEC, Miami is locked into a three-seed. The Hurricanes have looked shaky and pulled out a lot of close wins, but the record is the record and Miami has beaten some decent teams.
The committee isn’t going to be as high on the ACC as the Big Ten and SEC, though, so I’m interested to see if the Hurricanes are high enough to survive any potential championship loss. If they’re sixth or below, I don’t think they could get in as an at-large team with an ACC Championship Game loss.
4) BYU Cougars
This fourth-seed race is intriguing. Before the year, few gave any merit to the idea that the Power Four conference champions weren’t automatically going to be locked into the top four seeds. National outlets and announcers have referred to the 12-seed as the “Group of Five” spot. But I have Boise State just two spots below BYU in these rankings. Could the committee rank the Broncos in a position to be the fourth seed?
I highly doubt they will, but if BYU loses this weekend or even later in the year, a one-loss Broncos team could absolutely rank ahead of a two-loss or even one-loss Big 12 team.
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