The inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff gets underway on Friday, Dec. 20, with the first-round games the opening step on the road to Mercedes-Benz Stadium and the College Football National Championship Game on Jan. 20.
Our College Football Playoff predictions use the College Football Network Football Playoff Meter (FPM) to project every game of the 12-team bracket and predict which team will win the ultimate prize.
College Football Playoff Predictions | First Round
- No. 10 Indiana Hoosiers vs. No. 7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Friday, Dec. 20, 8 p.m. ET - No 11. SMU Mustangs vs. No. 6 Penn State Nittany Lions
Saturday, Dec. 21, Noon ET - No. 12 Clemson Tigers vs. No. 5 Texas Longhorns
Saturday, Dec. 21, 4 p.m. ET - No. 9 Tennessee Volunteers vs. No. 8 Ohio State Buckeyes
Saturday, Dec. 21, 8 p.m. ET
Notre Dame and Indiana get proceedings underway with a Friday night showdown in South Bend. The Irish might be the most under-the-radar contender to win the whole postseason tournament, and the CFN FPM gives them a 57.4% chance of taking down Curt Cignetti’s Hoosiers. Kurtis Rourke vs. the Notre Dame secondary could be a battle for the ages.
Penn State lost the Big Ten Championship Game to the Oregon Ducks, and lost its backup quarterback to the transfer portal, but is a substantial favorite in its first-round matchup according to our College Football Playoff predictions. SMU is given just a 31.2% chance of progressing to the quarterfinals after their ACC Championship Game loss to Clemson. Speaking of which…
No team in our College Football Playoff predictions is a bigger underdog than Dabo Swinney’s team, who heads to Austin on Saturday afternoon to take on a Texas team smarting from an SEC Championship Game loss to the Georgia Bulldogs. CFN FPM favors the Longhorns by 9.5 points, giving Steve Sarkisian’s team a 75.3% chance of progressing to the quarterfinal stage.
Finally, Tennessee vs. Ohio State is arguably the most highly-anticipated first-round game, pitching the eighth and ninth-ranked teams against each other in an epic battle. Can the Buckeyes keep pace with the Volunteers offense? Can they fend off a defensive unit as good as Tennessee fans have ever seen? The CFN FPM gives Ohio State a 64.6% chance of victory.
College Football Playoff Predictions | Quarterfinal
- Fiesta Bowl: No. 3 Boise State vs. No. 6 Penn State
- Peach Bowl: No. 4 Arizona State vs. No. 5 Texas
- Rose Bowl: No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 8 Ohio State
- Sugar Bowl: No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 7 Notre Dame
After winning the Mountain West title and watching the chaos unfold around them the following day, the Boise State Broncos secured the third seed. Their prize in our College Football Playoff predictions is a Fiesta Bowl date with Penn State. Can the Big Ten team stop an Ashton Jeanty fresh off Heisman disappointment? CFN FPM suggests not, with a 29.7% win chance for the Broncos.
The Arizona State Sun Devils face a similar win probability against Texas in the Peach Bowl. Despite being the Big 12 champion, they travel into SEC territory in Atlanta, which isn’t home-field advantage for the Longhorns but they’ve spent their fair share of time there this year. Texas has a 66.4% chance of locking down Cam Skattebo with their 14th-ranked rush defense.
Once upon a time, Oregon vs. Ohio State would have been a classic Rowl Bowl game pitting the best of the Pac-12 and Big Ten against each other as the sun set over Pasadena. With college football realignment, this quarterfinal battle is a rematch of an entertaining regular season game. Our College Football Playoff predictions give the Ducks a 53.8% chance of another win.
It might not be reflected in the win probability, but Georgia faces arguably the most difficult proposition in these College Football Playoff predictions. Notre Dame has a dominant ground game, a capable quarterback, and a defense as good as any in the nation. Betting against Kirby Smart in a big game is unwise, however, and our metric gives the ‘Dawgs a 57.4% chance of victory.
College Football Playoff Predictions | Semifinal
- Orange Bowl: No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 6 Penn State
- Cotton Bowl: No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 5 Texas
Oregon has been the number-one-ranked team in the nation since mid-October, and it would be no surprise to see them saunter through to the CFP semifinal. Our College Football Playoff predictions pit them against Texas in the Cotton Bowl, with our metric giving them a 55.6% chance of victory in that matchup. Dillon Gabriel vs. the Texas defense is must-watch material.
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The other semifinal matchup sees the Bulldogs take on the Nittany Lions in a game featuring two 2025 NFL Draft quarterback prospects with much to prove. Yet, it’s likely the ground game is the key to this game, with Nicholas Singleton powering Penn State and Nate Frazier dominating for the ‘Dawgs. Georgia has a 65.7% chance of booking a title game spot.
College Football Playoff Predictions | National Championship Game
- No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 2 Georgia
For all the talk about how the expanded College Football Playoff format might dilute the postseason tournament, it is somewhat poetic that the projected title game will feature the top two ranked teams in the nation if our prediction holds true. Amongst a plethora of storylines, Dan Lanning taking on his former master in Georgia head coach Smart is probably the most tantalizing.
If you believe this game in Atlanta is tantamount to a home game for the ‘Dawgs, you could call it a pick ’em. However, our metric gives the Ducks a 54.3% chance of defeating Georgia inside Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Jan. 20. Oregon’s offense averages nearly three points per game more than their projected opponent here, likely proving the difference the Ducks.
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