College football realignment and the expansion of the College Football Playoff have created a Wild, Wild West where every week anything is possible, and every result has a significant result on projections and predictions for bowl season and beyond.
How did it impact the postseason outlook? In our latest College Football Playoff Predictions, we use the previous CFP rankings and the Week 13 results to guide a projection of how the 2024-2024 College Football Playoff 12-team bracket could look.
College Football Playoff Predictions | First Round
- No. 5 Ohio State Buckeyes vs. No. 12 Arizona State Sun Devils
- No. 6 Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. No. 11 Indiana Hoosiers
- No. 7 Penn State Nittany Lions vs. No. 10 SMU Mustangs
- No. 8 Georgia Bulldogs vs. No. 9 Tennessee Volunteers
Ohio State appears destined for the fifth seed right now, and their convincing win over Indiana makes another team surpassing them extremely unlikely. In that scenario, they’d play a home tie against the 12th seed, which is the Arizona State Sun Devils in our latest College Football Playoff predictions. Kenny Dillingham’s team won a thriller against the BYU Cougars in Week 13 to seize the initiative in the Big 12.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Absolute chaos ensued in Week 13, shaking the very foundations of the potential playoff race, and our College Football Playoff predictions reflect that. After battering the Army Black Knights, Notre Dame should hurdle past a Penn State side that struggled against the Minnesota Golden Gophers and would have lost if not for some terrible play call decisions by PJ Fleck late in the game.
Meanwhile, losses for the Alabama Crimson Tide and Ole Miss Rebels catapult Georgia and Tennessee into the heart of the playoff conversation. SMU secured a spot in the ACC Championship Game with a comfortable win over the Virginia Cavaliers and can’t be ignored by the committee for much longer. Indiana should retain a spot after their Ohio State defeat.
College Football Playoff Predictions | Quarterfinal
- Fiesta Bowl: No. 4 Boise State Broncos vs. No. 5 Ohio State
- Peach Bowl: No. 3 Miami Hurricanes vs. No. 6 Notre Dame
- Rose Bowl: No. 1 Oregon Ducks vs. No. 8 Georgia
- Sugar Bowl: No. 2 Texas Longhorns vs. No. 7 Penn State
The four highest-ranked conference champions, according to our latest College Football Playoff predictions, will be Boise State (Mountain West), Miami (ACC), Oregon (Big Ten), and Texas (SEC), with those four teams securing first-round byes. According to multiple reports, those conferences will automatically place teams into contract-specific and location-related bowls, as listed above.
Ohio State showed its teeth against Indiana, and that defense should have the answers to take on Cam Skattebo and the Sun Devils and emerge victorious. That would set up a tie with the fourth-seed Boise State. After a couple of games where they’ve struggled to handle mediocre competition — including in Week 13 against the Wyoming Cowboys — the Broncos would be a huge underdog here.
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Notre Dame’s swarming defense and unstoppable ground game would give more Indiana than it can handle in the first round, and the Fighting Irish slide into the quarterfinals in our latest College Football Playoff predictions, taking on Miami in the Peach Bowl with only one likely outcome. Marcus Freeman’s team is riding the hottest hand in the country right now.
The other two semifinals see the SEC and Big Ten collide. While it’s difficult to beat the same team twice in a season, Georgia should take down Tennessee in the first round, setting up a date with Oregon in the Rose Bowl. Penn State’s solid run defense should help them past SMU, sending them to the Sugar Bowl to face Texas in our College Football Playoff predictions.
College Football Playoff Predictions | Semifinal
- Orange Bowl: No. 2 Texas vs. No. 5 Ohio State
- Cotton Bowl: No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 6 Notre Dame
It would be foolish to bet against Notre Dame against Miami in a projected quarterfinal, and the Fighting Irish should be eying the semifinal as a minimum expectation with the path provided in our College Football Playoff predictions. Could they overcome the Ducks, however? When fully fit, Oregon has the defense to frustrate the Notre Dame ground game and a dangerous offense.
The value of the fifth seed is well demonstrated in our College Football Playoff predictions because Ohio State gets the easiest path to the semifinal. Ashton Jeanty would trouble the Buckeyes in the quarterfinal, but Boise State can’t match up to Ryan Day’s team in all facets. Can a Texas team with a stellar defense lockdown the Buckeyes’ talented wide receiver room?
College Football Playoff Predictions | National Championship Game
- No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 5 Ohio State
The first installment of Oregon vs. Ohio State was arguably one of the greatest games of the 2024 season…..so far. We’ll get part two in the Big Ten Championship Game, and there is every chance that the series becomes a trilogy with the two teams meeting in the College Football National Championship Game. Other than the SEC, who says no to a repeat of that barnburner?
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